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Solar Actvitiy Report for 4/4/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The solar wind speed has stubbornly refused to decrease, and G-1 geomagnetic storm
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 4 9:45 PM
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      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The solar wind speed has stubbornly refused to decrease, and G-1
      geomagnetic storm conditions have been oberserved today. The solar
      wind speed is holding close to 500 km/sec this evening, although it is
      forecasted to decrease tomorrow. Of course, that's what they said
      yesterday, too. Forecasting space weather can be like forecasting
      terrestrial weather. Sometimes it doesn't do what you think it will.
      There was some flare activity today that's worthy of note. Sunspot
      region 324 produced a long-duration M-class flare. Long duration
      events are usually more likely to produce a CME, although I don't see
      much of one associated with this flare on the SOHO coronagraph images.
      While the solar wind speed is forecasted to decrease tomorrow, the
      respite may be a brief one. More high speed solar wind gusts to
      arrive on or about the 7th due to another coronal hole that has
      rotated into view.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 148
      SFI : 153
      A index : 24
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 480.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.2 nPa

      IMF : 6.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.2 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level
      occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next two days,
      dropping off to low when Region 324 (S11W40) makes its way off the
      visible disk.

      Geomagnetic actvity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
      with isolated periods of active conditions during the next 24 hours.
      The waning high-speed stream will decrease the geomagnetic field to
      quiet levels with isolated periods of unsettled on the second and
      third days.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      04-Apr-2003 2019Z M2.1
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