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Solar Activity Report for 3/20/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The first of a pair of CME s from the struck the Earth s magnetosphere early this morning.
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 20, 2003
      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The first of a pair of CME's from the struck the Earth's magnetosphere
      early this morning. This CME came from the X 1.5 flare of 3/17. The
      event didn't trigger much activity, as the solar wind speed was
      already substantially elevated, and remains so at this time. The
      second of the CME's, from the X 1.5 clare of 3/18, should arrive
      sometime tomorrow. Sunspot region 314, the source of those two
      flares, plus a total of seven M-class flares, is almost to the point
      of rotating over the western limb of the solar disk, and shouldn't be
      a factor after tomorrow. The sunspot number is already low, and it
      will drop lower as 314 disappears. Once it is gone, there will be
      only one sunspot region visible, that being 316. However, that may
      not be the end to the activity. There is another coronal hole that
      has rotated into view. While not nearly as big as the one that has
      caused all of the recent excitement, it is in a position that should
      send some more high speed solar wind out way, possibly around the end
      of next week. The current level of activity is expected to continue
      for at least the next 48 hours. The aurora pictures are coming in
      now. Some very good ones can be seen here :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01mar03.html .

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 45
      SFI : 97
      A index : 17
      K index : 5

      Solar wind speed : 708.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.1 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa

      IMF : 5.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar Activity Forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 314 may
      produce another major flare as it decays.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
      levels on 20 March in response to a CME associated with the 18 March
      X1/1b flare. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by the end of
      the three-day forecast period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      20-Mar-2003 1131Z M1.5
      19-Mar-2003 1332Z M1.4
      19-Mar-2003 0953Z M3.7
      19-Mar-2003 0646Z M1.7
      19-Mar-2003 0307Z M1.6
      18-Mar-2003 1208Z X1.5
      18-Mar-2003 0600Z M2.5
      18-Mar-2003 0037Z M1.7
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