Solar Activity Rpeort for 3/16/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
If you're a fan of coronal holes and high speed solar wind, then you
should be positively giddy tonight. The solar wind speed has topped
the 700 km/sec mark, and an aurora watch remains in effect.
Geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed on and off over the
last 48 hours. The geomagnetic field has calmed down to the unsettled
level for the time being, though don't be surprised if that changes.
The high speed solar wind and the associated geomagnetic activity is
expected to continue for at least the next 24 hours, and I wouldn't be
at all surprised to see it continue for another 24 hours after that.
Sunspot region 306 spans five Earth diameters from end to end and is a
threat for M-class flares. An M-class flare is also a possibility
from sunspot region 314.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 121
SFI : 129
A index : 16
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 714.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.5 nPa
IMF : 6.6 nT
IMF Orientation : 5.5 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class flares are
expected in Region 314. A chance of a small M-class flare in 314 also
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active under the
influence of the coronal hole stream for the next day or so. CME
effects are possible on the second day of the forecast due to a DSF
observed on 14 March.
Recent significant solar flare activity :