Solar Actvity Report for 3/12/03
- The solar wind speed has risen a little bit this evening,
foreshadowing the higher speed solar wind gusts that are expected
beginning on or about the 15th. The coronal hole that will be
bringing them to us is a fairly large one, so we could quite possibly
be in for some interesting geomagnetic activity. Expect an aurora
watch to be posted in a day or two. More aurora pictures are coming
in from the aurora activity last week, including this very good one
taken at the Alaska Pipeline near Fairbanks.
. The sunspot number has decreased, and will probably continue to do
so as sunspot region 296 rotates out of view. Sunspot region 306 is
the only one visible right now that looks to have any real M-class
flare generating potential.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 109
SFI : 138
A index : 9
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 468.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa
IMF : 12.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.5 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 296 (12W85),
306, and 311 (S12E05) have C-class potential.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
High speed stream effects are expected on day one and day two as a
recurring coronal hole rotates into a geo-effective position. A chance
of isolated active conditions are also possible on day one and day two
due to the expected high speed stream.
Recent significant solar flare activity :