Solar Activity Report for 2/16/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
If you aren't on the east coast and socked in by almost two feet of
snow like I am, you just might see some aurora tonight. The solar
wind speed is over the 600 km/sec mark, and aurora are a possibility
in the higher latitudes. The high speed solar wind is expected to
persist for at least another 24 hours before slowing down. While
there haven't been any significant flares for several days, there were
a couple of smaller flares Saturday that launched CME's. While it is
uncertain, there may have been at least something of an Earth-directed
component to them. If that was the case, look for those CME's to be
arriving sometime Monday. The solar disk is almost completely void of
sunspots tonight, which is rather unusual. The sunspot number is all
the way down to 41, which is the lowest it's been in years. Solar
activity is expected to be pretty quiet for the next few days.
The current solar and geomagnetic are :
NOAA sunspot number : 41
SFI : 119
A index : 13
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 616.7 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 8.6 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.7 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 282 and 288
have the potential for C-class flares.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.
Peak activity is expected on day two of the period.
Recent significant solar flare activity :