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Solar Activity Report for 2/6/03

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  • David <b1blancer1@earthlink.net>
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The solar wind speed, while gradually slowing down, is still close to the 500 km/sec mark tonight as a result of the most recent
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 6, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The solar wind speed, while gradually slowing down, is still close to
      the 500 km/sec mark tonight as a result of the most recent coronal
      hole encounter, and an aurora watch is still in effect. There have
      been some geomagnetic storms over the last few days, and some aurora
      to go along with them. Most of the aurora were confined to Alaska and
      Canada, although there were some aurora spotted and photographed in
      Washington State, as can be seen here :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01feb03.htm . The
      solar wind speed should continue to decline as the Earth exits the
      high speed solar wind stream. Sunspot region 278 contributed an
      M-class flare to the mix early today. From the X-ray plot, it looked
      to be a long-duration event, which are usually more likely to kick off
      a CME. However, there's no mention of one anywhere that I can find.
      There are four sunspot regions visible tonight, and three of them
      appear to have at least a small chance of producing an M-class flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 135
      SFI : 150
      A index : 14
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 507.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa

      IMF : 6.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.9 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be mostly low with isolated M-class
      flare activity from Regions 276, 277, and 278 possible.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      For the forecast period, the geomagnetic field is expected to remain
      mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active levels due
      to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      06-Feb-2003 0349Z M1.2
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