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Solar Activity Report for 2/2/03

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  • David <b1blancer1@earthlink.net>
    Before I begin today s report, I d like to post a poem that s near and dear to pilots hearts everywhere. The Columbia astronauts gave up their lives doing
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 2, 2003
      Before I begin today's report, I'd like to post a poem that's near and
      dear to pilots' hearts everywhere. The Columbia astronauts gave up
      their lives doing what they loved to do...fly.

      "High Flight"

      Oh, I have slipped the surly bonds of earth and danced the skies on
      laughter-silvered wings;

      Sunward I've climbed, and joined the tumbling mirth of sun-split
      clouds - and done a hundred things you have not dreamed of - wheeled
      and soared and swung high in the sunlit silence.

      Hov'ring there, I've chased the shouting wind along, and flung my
      eager craft through footless halls of air.

      Up, up the long delirious, burning blue I've topped the windswept
      heights with easy grace, where never lark, or even eagle flew.

      And, while with silent, lifting mind I've trod the high untresspassed
      sanctity of space, Put out my hand, and touched the face of God.

      - John Gillespie Magee, Jr., RCAF Flight Lieutenant, September 3, 1941
      (Officer Magee was killed in a accidental mid-air collision over
      England on December 11, 1941, at the age of 19.)

      Today's Solar Activity Report is dedicated to the memory of the Space
      Shuttle Columbia and her dedicated, gallant, and brave crew. May they
      forever fly.


      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      As predicted, the Earth was struck by a full-halo Coronal Mass
      Ejection which came from the dissapearing filament that was seen on
      1/31. The solar wind speed remains elevated, and on-and-off
      geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed since the CME's
      arrival yesterday. At one time, the geomagnetic storm level reached
      the G-2 (moderate)category, although the geomagetic field has calmed
      down a bit for the time being. Nevertheless, with the increased solar
      wind speed and density, more activity is a distinct possibility, and
      an aurora watch is in effect. In fact, some quite impressive aurora
      have already been seen and photographed over Alaska, as can be seen
      here :
      Skywatchers should remain on the lookout for aurora tonight. The
      nearly new moon should make faint aurora easoer to spot. Only two
      numbered sunspot regions are visible on the solar disk tonight. One
      of them, region 276, does have at least an isolated chance of
      producing an M-class flare. There is also a coronal hole that has
      rotated into an Earth-pointing position. Look for the high speed
      solar wind gusts from it to arrive on or about the 4th.

      The current solar and geomagnmetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 61
      SFI : 127
      A index : 34
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 473.1 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 7.6 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.9 nPa

      IMF : 7.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair
      chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 276 sometime during
      the next three days.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active
      during the next 24 hours, but there will probably be some periods of
      minor storm levels as the current disturbance persists partway into
      the first day. A decrease to mostly unsettled is expected for the
      second day. An increase to unsettled to active is anticipated on the
      third day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      01-Feb-2003 0905Z M1.2
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