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Re: [Methane Hydrate Club] Solar Activity Report for 1/31/03

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  • foryeshua1@juno.com
    David, I have some questions down in the text. Thanks. Walter On Sat, 01 Feb 2003 07:26:03 -0000 David
    Message 1 of 2 , Feb 1, 2003
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      David, I have some questions down in the text. Thanks. Walter

      On Sat, 01 Feb 2003 07:26:03 -0000 "David <b1blancer1@...>"
      <b1blancer1@...> writes:
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      In a perfect illustration of the fact that you don't have to have a
      flare to create a CME, a disappearing filament generated a full-halo
      CME on the 30th.
      OK filaments as well as holes can cause CMEs. You said it was
      pointing in the right direction, does this mean towards us? Or close
      enough to the South pole to combine with my SE idea?

      A filament is a giant loop of gas which is suspended
      by a magnetic field above the visible surface of the sun. If the
      magnetic field becomes unstable, the filament can suddenly collapse
      back down. It causes a "splash," much the same as a rock falling into
      water, except in this case the material thrown up by the spash is
      about a billion tons of white-hot plasma in the form of a CME, and
      it's headed this way.
      How do you know if it is headed this way? Can you see it coming
      and its progressing path as it comes? Also do any of the loops or holes
      in the Northern Hemisphere of the Sun cause CMEs? Or are the CMEs that
      come our way mostly directed at us on the central Sun area? It is my
      thinking that CMEs don't cause SE, but it is caused by steady South
      currents put into motion by central Sun functions. Walter

      It should arrive sometime tomorrow, and
      geomagnetic storm conditions are at least a possibility. There's also
      a fairly large coronal hole that has rotated into an Earth-pointing
      position. The solar wind gusts from that should arrive on or about
      the 4th.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 96
      SFI : 120
      A index : 13
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 407.3 km.sec
      Solar wind density : 0.4 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.1 nPa

      IMF : 8.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 5.7 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.

      Geonagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, but
      there is a chance for some active periods. Effects from the halo CME
      of 30 January are expected to arrive some time around midday tomorrow
      and should increase levels to active through the second day.
      Conditions should decline to unsettled to slightly active on the third
      day.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None


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    • David <b1blancer1@earthlink.net>
      ... One clarification I need to make : A coronal hole doesn t generate a CME. What a coronal hole does allow is high speed solar wind to escape. The solar
      Message 2 of 2 , Feb 2, 2003
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        >OK filaments as well as holes can cause CMEs. You said it was
        > pointing in the right direction, does this mean towards us? OR close
        > enough to the South pole to combine with my SE idea?

        One clarification I need to make : A coronal hole doesn't generate a
        CME. What a coronal hole does allow is high speed solar wind to
        escape. The solar wind is generated below the corona. The corona
        slows the solar wind down as it passed through it. When there's a
        coronal hole, the solar wind isn't slowed down as it passes through
        the hole. The collapsing filament I mentioned shot off a Coronal Mass
        Ejection (CME) towards us.


        > How do you know if it is headed this way? Can you see it coming
        > and its progressing path as it comes? Also do any of the loops or holes
        > in the Northern Hemisphere of the Sun cause CMEs? Or are the CMEs that
        > come our way mostly directed at us on the central Sun area? It is my
        > thinking that CMEs don't cause SE, but it is caused by steady South
        > currents put into motion by central Sun functions. Walter
        >

        I knew it was headed this way because the Space Environment Center
        said so! ;-) They seem to know what they're talking about. If you
        see an Earth-directed CME on the images from the SOHO satellite
        coronagraph, it looks like a giant, expanding smoke-ring, or halo,
        thus the phrase full-halo CME. Now, the SOHO cameras suffer from the
        same limitation that any camera does, and that it has no depth
        perception. A CME fired off directly away from Earth looks very
        similar to one coming right at us. That's why the folks who analyze
        the ddata from SOHO also look for other indications such as radio wave
        burts, to correlate with the event. If you see a full-halo CME at the
        same time you see a radio burst from the sun, it's a pretty safe bet
        the CME is headed our way. If, on the other hand, you see the CME and
        no other indications of any activity, then it was probably a backside
        event and headed away from us.

        Northern hemispere solar flares and filaments can certainly generate
        CME's. Their exact direction of travel will be directed by the
        magnetic field that's in the area at the time.
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