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Solar Activity Report for 1/31/03

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  • David <b1blancer1@earthlink.net>
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** In a perfect illustration of the fact that you don t have to have a flare to create a CME, a dissapearing filament generated a
    Message 1 of 2 , Jan 31, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      In a perfect illustration of the fact that you don't have to have a
      flare to create a CME, a dissapearing filament generated a full-halo
      CME on the 30th. A filament is a giant loop of gas which is suspended
      by a magnetic field above the visible surface of the sun. If the
      magnetic field becomes unstable, the filament can suddenly collapse
      back down. It causes a "splash," much the same as a rock falling into
      water, except in this case the material thrown up by the spash is
      about a billion tons of white-hot plasma in the form of a CME, and
      it's headed this way. It should arrive sometime tomorrow, and
      geomagnetic storm conditions are at least a possibility. There's also
      a fairly large coronal hole that has rotated into an Earth-pointing
      position. The solar wind gusts from that should arrive on or about
      the 4th.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 96
      SFI : 120
      A index : 13
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 407.3 km.sec
      Solar wind density : 0.4 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.1 nPa

      IMF : 8.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 5.7 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.

      Geonagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, but
      there is a chance for some active periods. Effects from the halo CME
      of 30 January are expected to arrive some time around midday tomorrow
      and should increase levels to active through the second day.
      Conditions should decline to unsettled to slightly active on the third
      day.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • David
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The Earth is now inside of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed
      Message 2 of 2 , Jan 31, 2004
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        ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

        The Earth is now inside of a coronal hole high speed solar wind
        stream, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within
        the last 24 hours. Therefore, an aurora watch is in effect.
        Skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an eye to the sky for
        aurora. Other than that, there isn't much happening as solar activity
        remains low. There are three small numbered sunspot regions visible,
        but none appear to have any significant flare generating capability at
        the present time.

        The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

        NOAA sunspot number : 49
        SFI : 94
        A index : 10
        K index : 2

        Solar wind speed : 627.9 km/sec
        Solar wind density : 2.1 protons/cc
        Solar wind pressure : 1.6 nPa

        IMF : 6.8 nT
        IMF Orientation : 1.6 nT North

        Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
        reaching the G1 level occurred.

        Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

        Solar activity forecast :
        Solar activity is expected to be low. Additional small flares are
        expected in Region 549. There is a chance of a small M-class flare in
        this region as well.

        Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active
        with the possibility of isolated minor storm periods as the coronal
        hole induced disturbance continues.

        Recent significant solar flare activity :
        None
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