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  • Mike Doran <mike@usinter.net>
    http://www.greeningearthsociety.org/Articles/2002/vca36.htm VIRTUAL CLIMATE ALERT December 19, 2002 Vol. 3, No. 36 As predictably as reclusive authors
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 27, 2003


      December 19, 2002 Vol. 3, No. 36

      "As predictably as reclusive authors reappear on talk shows to flog
      their latest book or movie stars can be seen yucking it up with Jay
      Leno just before he coincidently runs a clip from their upcoming box
      office smash, right on cue, this last week, came the flurry of
      announcements that characterize this year's average global
      temperature as the whatever-warmest-on-record. Somehow these
      announcements always manage to precede the actual end of the year
      when all of the data actually is in, but let's run with this year's
      declaration that 2002 is – as you've heard by now – "the second
      warmest on record," a record that extends back into the mid- to late-

      Basically there are three organizations that compile global surface
      temperature records. Usually three separate announcements are made in
      rapid succession. Once one organization jumps to its conclusion, then
      the other two quickly follow. This year, it was NASA's Jim Hansen who
      first made the announcement. Tom Karl of National Climatic Data
      Center was right on his heels. Then came Kenneth Davidson of the
      World Meteorological Organization. While this modus operandi
      virtually is guaranteed to assure global press saturation, in a few
      weeks the Big Three will repeat their announcement because all the
      data will be in and they can make it "official."

      . . .

      Greening Earth Society Virtual Climate Alerts are published
      periodically in response to news coverage of climate-change advocacy
      that seeks to portray weather events and hypothetical climate
      scenarios generated by computer-based climate models as "climate
      reality." Virtual Climate Alert is coordinated by New Hope
      Environmental Services of Charlottesville, Virginia. "

      I did come up with this man as the possible author--his CV is here:


      Looks like his training is in ocean air interactions--IOW a
      chaos/thermodynamic idiot w/ some oceanography. Here is what he says:

      The world emerged from a three decade-long cooling trend rather
      suddenly in 1977 with an event that has come to be known as
      the "Great Pacific Climate Shift." In 1976-77, an enormous volume of
      warm water bubbled from the central Pacific's subsurface to its
      surface. Ever since, the world has been in a warming trend. As you
      read this, scientists are tracking a large, cool pool of subsurface
      water that they believe soon will pop to the surface in the tropical
      Pacific. It will be interesting to see how global temperatures (and
      the world press) respond to that development. Stay tuned.

      This guy has little idea what ENSO is, where the forcing stems (from
      the clouds, not the oceans), or why 1998 was the warmest year in a
      thousand. It is also NOT correct to say that SSTs are COLD deep right
      now. They are NOT. SSTs are anomaly nuetral or slightly warm at best.
      Not cold. It takes time for the cloud dynamics to cool waters. It
      takes time for places where upwelling has occurred to start a
      biological containment that increases the conductivity of those
      waters. Yes, reverse and change they do, but not from the bottom up.

      And this guy clearly has no idea that the climate system dynamic is a
      modulating one and biological.
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