More "greening earth"
VIRTUAL CLIMATE ALERT
December 19, 2002 Vol. 3, No. 36
"As predictably as reclusive authors reappear on talk shows to flog
their latest book or movie stars can be seen yucking it up with Jay
Leno just before he coincidently runs a clip from their upcoming box
office smash, right on cue, this last week, came the flurry of
announcements that characterize this year's average global
temperature as the whatever-warmest-on-record. Somehow these
announcements always manage to precede the actual end of the year
when all of the data actually is in, but let's run with this year's
declaration that 2002 is as you've heard by now "the second
warmest on record," a record that extends back into the mid- to late-
Basically there are three organizations that compile global surface
temperature records. Usually three separate announcements are made in
rapid succession. Once one organization jumps to its conclusion, then
the other two quickly follow. This year, it was NASA's Jim Hansen who
first made the announcement. Tom Karl of National Climatic Data
Center was right on his heels. Then came Kenneth Davidson of the
World Meteorological Organization. While this modus operandi
virtually is guaranteed to assure global press saturation, in a few
weeks the Big Three will repeat their announcement because all the
data will be in and they can make it "official."
. . .
Greening Earth Society Virtual Climate Alerts are published
periodically in response to news coverage of climate-change advocacy
that seeks to portray weather events and hypothetical climate
scenarios generated by computer-based climate models as "climate
reality." Virtual Climate Alert is coordinated by New Hope
Environmental Services of Charlottesville, Virginia. "
I did come up with this man as the possible author--his CV is here:
Looks like his training is in ocean air interactions--IOW a
chaos/thermodynamic idiot w/ some oceanography. Here is what he says:
The world emerged from a three decade-long cooling trend rather
suddenly in 1977 with an event that has come to be known as
the "Great Pacific Climate Shift." In 1976-77, an enormous volume of
warm water bubbled from the central Pacific's subsurface to its
surface. Ever since, the world has been in a warming trend. As you
read this, scientists are tracking a large, cool pool of subsurface
water that they believe soon will pop to the surface in the tropical
Pacific. It will be interesting to see how global temperatures (and
the world press) respond to that development. Stay tuned.
This guy has little idea what ENSO is, where the forcing stems (from
the clouds, not the oceans), or why 1998 was the warmest year in a
thousand. It is also NOT correct to say that SSTs are COLD deep right
now. They are NOT. SSTs are anomaly nuetral or slightly warm at best.
Not cold. It takes time for the cloud dynamics to cool waters. It
takes time for places where upwelling has occurred to start a
biological containment that increases the conductivity of those
waters. Yes, reverse and change they do, but not from the bottom up.
And this guy clearly has no idea that the climate system dynamic is a
modulating one and biological.