I see that Fuji Island storm is moving on and the SOI Tahiti BP has risen
up to 1004 but the SOI is still positive. This makes sense in a low
pressure wind . . . as B-1 reports tonight.
Doubt has been cast over when the drought-inducing El Nino weather event
is likely to break down.
The nation's official long term weather forecaster, the National Climate
Centre, has been predicting El Nino will break down by March.
But Queensland's chief climate forecaster Dr Roger Stone says there are
conflicting forecasts from the US and Japan which question how long the
El Nino will last.
Dr Stone says either way, this is the wrong time of year to make a
"I think we need to reassess the information, probably around mid-
February," he said.
"Because we know that forecast models do their best probably... from the
end of May onwards, and the El Nino pattern has probably sorted itself
out one way or the other by the end of May. That is the critical time as
far as our climate systems are concerned."</TT>
The main reason the models go bad this time of year (in my view it's CYA
time and the models are crap ALL the time) is that the sun is closest to
the earth in its elliptical orbit, and the tilt is to the Southern Oceans
as well--and the impact of EMFs in particular in relation to the Southern
Ocean is most critical. There is a huge sign of cooling oceans in
general in that the Southern Ocean itself is for the first time in years
starting to show some warm anomalies--that means that the inductions from
east to west are LESS conductive. Part of the explaination may be
changing biological conditions as well.
Understand that the warmer the oceans, the better they conduct currents.
That means that if the direction of current enhances cirrus clouds, and
the IR balances under them, you can expect warmer oceans. BUT, going the
other way good induction cools SSTs, so SSTs aren't indicative of
the "state" of the dynamic--especially in elevated EMF conditions. That
is Lindzen's 'iris' in a nutshell--the push and pull between the
directionals of the North and South Equaorials and the Equatorial--to the
extent that the warmer SSTs of the Equatorial takes a back seat to
current direction. Further, conductivity is impacted well this time of
year by biological conditions and the winds and SST changes they bring
about by repeated cloud behavior modulated by the conductivities they
Later in the year, the relevant EMFs have less ocean to deal and more
land, and the EMFs via strikes and thunderstorms begin to play their
roles--and SSTs become more of a pure climate indicater.
It's all electrical and biological.