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ENSO models

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  • mike
    I see that Fuji Island storm is moving on and the SOI Tahiti BP has risen up to 1004 but the SOI is still positive. This makes sense in a low pressure wind .
    Message 1 of 3 , Jan 15, 2003
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      I see that Fuji Island storm is moving on and the SOI Tahiti BP has risen
      up to 1004 but the SOI is still positive. This makes sense in a low
      pressure wind . . . as B-1 reports tonight.


      <TT>(ABC)

      Doubt has been cast over when the drought-inducing El Nino weather event
      is likely to break down.

      The nation's official long term weather forecaster, the National Climate
      Centre, has been predicting El Nino will break down by March.

      But Queensland's chief climate forecaster Dr Roger Stone says there are
      conflicting forecasts from the US and Japan which question how long the
      El Nino will last.

      Dr Stone says either way, this is the wrong time of year to make a
      prediction.

      "I think we need to reassess the information, probably around mid-
      February," he said.

      "Because we know that forecast models do their best probably... from the
      end of May onwards, and the El Nino pattern has probably sorted itself
      out one way or the other by the end of May. That is the critical time as
      far as our climate systems are concerned."</TT>

      The main reason the models go bad this time of year (in my view it's CYA
      time and the models are crap ALL the time) is that the sun is closest to
      the earth in its elliptical orbit, and the tilt is to the Southern Oceans
      as well--and the impact of EMFs in particular in relation to the Southern
      Ocean is most critical. There is a huge sign of cooling oceans in
      general in that the Southern Ocean itself is for the first time in years
      starting to show some warm anomalies--that means that the inductions from
      east to west are LESS conductive. Part of the explaination may be
      changing biological conditions as well.

      Understand that the warmer the oceans, the better they conduct currents.
      That means that if the direction of current enhances cirrus clouds, and
      the IR balances under them, you can expect warmer oceans. BUT, going the
      other way good induction cools SSTs, so SSTs aren't indicative of
      the "state" of the dynamic--especially in elevated EMF conditions. That
      is Lindzen's 'iris' in a nutshell--the push and pull between the
      directionals of the North and South Equaorials and the Equatorial--to the
      extent that the warmer SSTs of the Equatorial takes a back seat to
      current direction. Further, conductivity is impacted well this time of
      year by biological conditions and the winds and SST changes they bring
      about by repeated cloud behavior modulated by the conductivities they
      alter.

      Later in the year, the relevant EMFs have less ocean to deal and more
      land, and the EMFs via strikes and thunderstorms begin to play their
      roles--and SSTs become more of a pure climate indicater.

      It's all electrical and biological.
    • David
      ** Aurora Watch in Effect ** Conditions are a bit unsettled tonight, and the solar wind speed has risen since my last report, and to be completely honest, I
      Message 2 of 3 , Jan 15, 2004
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        ** Aurora Watch in Effect **

        Conditions are a bit unsettled tonight, and the solar wind speed has
        risen since my last report, and to be completely honest, I have no
        idea why. There is a coronal hole that has rotated into an
        Earth-pointing position, but we weren't supposed to see any high speed
        solar wind gusts from it until late on the 16th. Oh well, I suppose
        the event could've arrived early. It will be intereting to see what
        happens over the next 48 hours. At any rate, as a result of the
        increased solar wind speed and anticipated coronal hole affects, an
        aurora watch in now in effect. Skywatchers in the higher latitudes
        should keep an eye out. Two numbered sunspot regions are visible, and
        both have at least an outside chance of generating a significant flare.

        The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

        NOAA sunspot number : 57
        SFI : 119
        A index : 14
        K index : 4

        Solar wind speed : 581.8 km/sec
        Solar wind density : 4.3 nT
        Solar wind pressure : 3.0 nPa

        IMF : 10.6 nT
        IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT North

        Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

        Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

        Solar activity forecast :
        Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 540 is capable of C-class
        and isolated M-class flare activity.

        Geomagnetic Activity Forecast :
        The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with isolated
        periods of minor storming on 17 and 18 January due to the anticipated
        arrival of high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.

        Recent significant solar flare activity :
        None
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