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Solar Activity Report for 1/15/03

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  • David <b1blancer1@earthlink.net>
    All is fairly quiet this evening, with no flares or substantial coronal holes to talk about for the time being. There is a coronal hole visible, but it s
    Message 1 of 3 , Jan 15, 2003
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      All is fairly quiet this evening, with no flares or substantial
      coronal holes to talk about for the time being. There is a coronal
      hole visible, but it's probably located too far south on the solar
      disk to send much of anything our way. There are seven sunspot
      regions visible tonight but none look to have any real flare
      generating potential. There is a small chance of an M-class flare,
      but I wouldn't hold my breath. Whatever caused the big eruption over
      the eastern limb seen a couple of days ago either hasn't shown up yet
      or has decayed since then.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 173
      SFI : 150
      A index : 6
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 353.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa

      IMF : 4.3 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.0 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • mike
      I see that Fuji Island storm is moving on and the SOI Tahiti BP has risen up to 1004 but the SOI is still positive. This makes sense in a low pressure wind .
      Message 2 of 3 , Jan 15, 2003
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        I see that Fuji Island storm is moving on and the SOI Tahiti BP has risen
        up to 1004 but the SOI is still positive. This makes sense in a low
        pressure wind . . . as B-1 reports tonight.


        <TT>(ABC)

        Doubt has been cast over when the drought-inducing El Nino weather event
        is likely to break down.

        The nation's official long term weather forecaster, the National Climate
        Centre, has been predicting El Nino will break down by March.

        But Queensland's chief climate forecaster Dr Roger Stone says there are
        conflicting forecasts from the US and Japan which question how long the
        El Nino will last.

        Dr Stone says either way, this is the wrong time of year to make a
        prediction.

        "I think we need to reassess the information, probably around mid-
        February," he said.

        "Because we know that forecast models do their best probably... from the
        end of May onwards, and the El Nino pattern has probably sorted itself
        out one way or the other by the end of May. That is the critical time as
        far as our climate systems are concerned."</TT>

        The main reason the models go bad this time of year (in my view it's CYA
        time and the models are crap ALL the time) is that the sun is closest to
        the earth in its elliptical orbit, and the tilt is to the Southern Oceans
        as well--and the impact of EMFs in particular in relation to the Southern
        Ocean is most critical. There is a huge sign of cooling oceans in
        general in that the Southern Ocean itself is for the first time in years
        starting to show some warm anomalies--that means that the inductions from
        east to west are LESS conductive. Part of the explaination may be
        changing biological conditions as well.

        Understand that the warmer the oceans, the better they conduct currents.
        That means that if the direction of current enhances cirrus clouds, and
        the IR balances under them, you can expect warmer oceans. BUT, going the
        other way good induction cools SSTs, so SSTs aren't indicative of
        the "state" of the dynamic--especially in elevated EMF conditions. That
        is Lindzen's 'iris' in a nutshell--the push and pull between the
        directionals of the North and South Equaorials and the Equatorial--to the
        extent that the warmer SSTs of the Equatorial takes a back seat to
        current direction. Further, conductivity is impacted well this time of
        year by biological conditions and the winds and SST changes they bring
        about by repeated cloud behavior modulated by the conductivities they
        alter.

        Later in the year, the relevant EMFs have less ocean to deal and more
        land, and the EMFs via strikes and thunderstorms begin to play their
        roles--and SSTs become more of a pure climate indicater.

        It's all electrical and biological.
      • David
        ** Aurora Watch in Effect ** Conditions are a bit unsettled tonight, and the solar wind speed has risen since my last report, and to be completely honest, I
        Message 3 of 3 , Jan 15, 2004
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          ** Aurora Watch in Effect **

          Conditions are a bit unsettled tonight, and the solar wind speed has
          risen since my last report, and to be completely honest, I have no
          idea why. There is a coronal hole that has rotated into an
          Earth-pointing position, but we weren't supposed to see any high speed
          solar wind gusts from it until late on the 16th. Oh well, I suppose
          the event could've arrived early. It will be intereting to see what
          happens over the next 48 hours. At any rate, as a result of the
          increased solar wind speed and anticipated coronal hole affects, an
          aurora watch in now in effect. Skywatchers in the higher latitudes
          should keep an eye out. Two numbered sunspot regions are visible, and
          both have at least an outside chance of generating a significant flare.

          The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

          NOAA sunspot number : 57
          SFI : 119
          A index : 14
          K index : 4

          Solar wind speed : 581.8 km/sec
          Solar wind density : 4.3 nT
          Solar wind pressure : 3.0 nPa

          IMF : 10.6 nT
          IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT North

          Conditions for the last 24 hours :
          No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

          Forecast for the next 24 hours :
          No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

          Solar activity forecast :
          Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 540 is capable of C-class
          and isolated M-class flare activity.

          Geomagnetic Activity Forecast :
          The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with isolated
          periods of minor storming on 17 and 18 January due to the anticipated
          arrival of high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.

          Recent significant solar flare activity :
          None
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