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Re: Solar Activity Report for 1/10/03

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  • Mike Doran <mike@usinter.net>
    In the meantime it would appear the SOI went strongly positive from the lull: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
    Message 1 of 2 , Jan 12, 2003
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      In the meantime it would appear the SOI went strongly positive from
      the lull:

      http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
      lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/


      Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day

      11-Jan-2003 1011.06 1003.85 12.20 -7.38 -6.35
      12-Jan-2003 1011.84 1004.30 13.80 -6.29 -6.14
      13-Jan-2003 1011.81 1003.35 18.10 -5.53 -5.85


      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David <b1blancer1@e...>"
      <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
      > The solar wind speed is rising in response to the effects from a
      > coronal hole-generated high speed solar wind stream, but so far
      there
      > haven't been any geomagnetic effects from it, mainly due to a
      > north-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Stay tuned for at
      least
      > the next 24 hours, however, as that could change at any time. I
      don't
      > expect the level of activity, if any happens, to reach that of 12/27
      > when aurora were seen as far south as Arizona. There are several
      > good-sized sunspot regions visible, and three of them, 242, 247, and
      > 251, have at least M-class flare generating potential. An M-class
      > flare was detected on the 9th from sunspot region 251, its second
      > significant flare since it appeared over the eastern limb of the
      solar
      > disk. None of sunspot regions look like they could fire off a major
      > flare at this time, but again, that could always change.
      >
      > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
      >
      > NOAA sunspot number : 199
      > SFI : 185
      > A index : 12
      > K index : 3
      >
      > Solar wind speed : 453.4 km/sec
      > Solar wind density : 2.5 protons/cc
      > Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa
      >
      > IMF : 5.8 nT
      > IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT North
      >
      > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
      >
      > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
      >
      > Solar activity forecast :
      > Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class
      > events are possible from Region 242, 247, and 251.
      >
      > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      > The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled for
      the
      > next three days.
      >
      > Recent significant solar flare activity :
      > 09-Jan-2003 0537Z M1.0
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