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Solar Activity Report for 1/10/03

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  • David <b1blancer1@earthlink.net>
    The solar wind speed is rising in response to the effects from a coronal hole-generated high speed solar wind stream, but so far there haven t been any
    Message 1 of 2 , Jan 10, 2003
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      The solar wind speed is rising in response to the effects from a
      coronal hole-generated high speed solar wind stream, but so far there
      haven't been any geomagnetic effects from it, mainly due to a
      north-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Stay tuned for at least
      the next 24 hours, however, as that could change at any time. I don't
      expect the level of activity, if any happens, to reach that of 12/27
      when aurora were seen as far south as Arizona. There are several
      good-sized sunspot regions visible, and three of them, 242, 247, and
      251, have at least M-class flare generating potential. An M-class
      flare was detected on the 9th from sunspot region 251, its second
      significant flare since it appeared over the eastern limb of the solar
      disk. None of sunspot regions look like they could fire off a major
      flare at this time, but again, that could always change.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 199
      SFI : 185
      A index : 12
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 453.4 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa

      IMF : 5.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class
      events are possible from Region 242, 247, and 251.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the
      next three days.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      09-Jan-2003 0537Z M1.0
    • Mike Doran <mike@usinter.net>
      In the meantime it would appear the SOI went strongly positive from the lull: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
      Message 2 of 2 , Jan 12, 2003
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        In the meantime it would appear the SOI went strongly positive from
        the lull:

        http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
        lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/


        Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day

        11-Jan-2003 1011.06 1003.85 12.20 -7.38 -6.35
        12-Jan-2003 1011.84 1004.30 13.80 -6.29 -6.14
        13-Jan-2003 1011.81 1003.35 18.10 -5.53 -5.85


        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David <b1blancer1@e...>"
        <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
        > The solar wind speed is rising in response to the effects from a
        > coronal hole-generated high speed solar wind stream, but so far
        there
        > haven't been any geomagnetic effects from it, mainly due to a
        > north-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Stay tuned for at
        least
        > the next 24 hours, however, as that could change at any time. I
        don't
        > expect the level of activity, if any happens, to reach that of 12/27
        > when aurora were seen as far south as Arizona. There are several
        > good-sized sunspot regions visible, and three of them, 242, 247, and
        > 251, have at least M-class flare generating potential. An M-class
        > flare was detected on the 9th from sunspot region 251, its second
        > significant flare since it appeared over the eastern limb of the
        solar
        > disk. None of sunspot regions look like they could fire off a major
        > flare at this time, but again, that could always change.
        >
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
        >
        > NOAA sunspot number : 199
        > SFI : 185
        > A index : 12
        > K index : 3
        >
        > Solar wind speed : 453.4 km/sec
        > Solar wind density : 2.5 protons/cc
        > Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa
        >
        > IMF : 5.8 nT
        > IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT North
        >
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
        >
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
        > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
        >
        > Solar activity forecast :
        > Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class
        > events are possible from Region 242, 247, and 251.
        >
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled for
        the
        > next three days.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :
        > 09-Jan-2003 0537Z M1.0
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