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Solar Activity Report for 1/8/03

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  • David <b1blancer1@earthlink.net>
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Finally Flares!! After dropping below the 50 mark for two days, the sunspot number has soared back up close to 200, and some of
    Message 1 of 2 , Jan 8, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Finally Flares!! After dropping below the 50 mark for two days, the
      sunspot number has soared back up close to 200, and some of the
      sunspots are active! Of the seven visible sunspot regions, two have
      produced flares within the last 24 hours. Region 244 produced an M-1
      flare, and region 251 kicked off a powerful M-4 flare that was darn
      close to an M-5. While neither flare produced an Earth-directed CME,
      more activity is a strong possibility from either of these two sunspot
      regions, so stay tuned! Rgeion 251 has just appeared over the eastern
      limb of the solar disk, so it's going to be around for several more
      days. The cause of the aurora watch is a small coronal hole that is
      an Earth-pointing position. Any geonagnetic activity is likely to be
      of a fairly low level, but aurora are at least a small possibility in
      the higher latitudes. Look for the solar wind speed to start picking
      up on the 9th or 10th.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 198
      SFI : 174
      A index : 6
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 288.1 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 5.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa

      IMF : 7.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Several regions on
      the disk have the potential for producing an M-class event.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through the
      next three days. Isolated active conditions are possible on 10 January
      due to expected coronal hole effects.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      07-Jan-2003 2333Z M4.9
      07-Jan-2003 0750Z M1.0
    • Mike Doran <mike@usinter.net>
      I see that the solar wind is real low--however. It will be real interesting to watch the SOI and weather and see how it responds to all of this. ... 1 ...
      Message 2 of 2 , Jan 9, 2003
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        I see that the solar wind is real low--however. It will be real
        interesting to watch the SOI and weather and see how it responds to
        all of this.

        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David <b1blancer1@e...>"
        <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
        > ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
        >
        > Finally Flares!! After dropping below the 50 mark for two days, the
        > sunspot number has soared back up close to 200, and some of the
        > sunspots are active! Of the seven visible sunspot regions, two have
        > produced flares within the last 24 hours. Region 244 produced an M-
        1
        > flare, and region 251 kicked off a powerful M-4 flare that was darn
        > close to an M-5. While neither flare produced an Earth-directed
        CME,
        > more activity is a strong possibility from either of these two
        sunspot
        > regions, so stay tuned! Rgeion 251 has just appeared over the
        eastern
        > limb of the solar disk, so it's going to be around for several more
        > days. The cause of the aurora watch is a small coronal hole that is
        > an Earth-pointing position. Any geonagnetic activity is likely to
        be
        > of a fairly low level, but aurora are at least a small possibility
        in
        > the higher latitudes. Look for the solar wind speed to start
        picking
        > up on the 9th or 10th.
        >
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
        >
        > NOAA sunspot number : 198
        > SFI : 174
        > A index : 6
        > K index : 1
        >
        > Solar wind speed : 288.1 km/sec
        > Solar wind density : 5.7 protons/cc
        > Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa
        >
        > IMF : 7.2 nT
        > IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT North
        >
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
        >
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
        > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
        >
        > Solar activity forecast :
        > Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Several regions on
        > the disk have the potential for producing an M-class event.
        >
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through
        the
        > next three days. Isolated active conditions are possible on 10
        January
        > due to expected coronal hole effects.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :
        > 07-Jan-2003 2333Z M4.9
        > 07-Jan-2003 0750Z M1.0
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