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New ice sheet study and ENSO--from Gaia earther perspective

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  • Mike Doran <mike@usinter.net>
    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news? tmpl=story2&cid=624&ncid=624&e=2&u=/ap/20030103/ap_on_sc/ice_melt_3 Antarctic Ice May Vanish in 7,000 Years By PAUL RECER, AP
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 6, 2003
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      http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?
      tmpl=story2&cid=624&ncid=624&e=2&u=/ap/20030103/ap_on_sc/ice_melt_3

      Antarctic Ice May Vanish in 7,000 Years

      By PAUL RECER, AP Science Writer

      WASHINGTON - A natural cycle of thawing may cause an Antarctic ice
      sheet as big as Texas and Colorado combined to melt away in 7,000
      years, possibly causing a worldwide sea level rise of about 16 feet,
      according to new research.

      In a study appearing Friday in the journal Science, researchers say
      that geochemical measurements of when mountainside rocks first become
      free of ice near the south pole show that the West Antarctic Ice
      Sheet began melting about 10,000 years ago and is still shrinking.

      "There was a gradual and continuous melting," said John O. Stone,
      first author of the study and a professor of geology at the
      University of Washington, Seattle. Over thousands of years, he said,
      the ice has retreated at the rate of about 2 inches a year in a
      steady pattern that shows no sign of slowing.

      . . .

      "We see no evidence that it has stopped," he said. "The pattern we
      see is very steady and continuous. ... We've had 10,000 years of
      climate much like it is today and the ice sheet has been shrinking
      continuously during that time."


      Comment:

      In my view this is warm oceans of the inter glacial. BUT with a hint
      at what exactly IS this interglacial, there may be a few things you
      can say about this particular Milankovitch setting from an EMF
      standpoint in terms of tilt and the elliptical orbit setting itself
      closest to the earth during the Southern Ocean summer. BUT, to me
      this is more interesting from a BIOLOGICAL standpoint than anything.

      Because few contend that we have had a peak of the interglacial from
      12,500 to 7,000 years ago BP as we exited the Wisconsonian. BUT,
      geohistorically the interglacials have lasted 10,000 years. So what
      gives?

      Understanding EMFs and the biosphere's relationship to them leads to
      likely answer. Recent Rhode Island University research of coring of
      Equadorian lake beds suggests that ENSO has had its regular pattern
      of 2 to 7 years for the past 5,000 years. Before then--it was
      sporadic. What the researchers did--very ingenius--is xray the cores
      they took of the lakes to get very exact data. What it showed is that
      before 5,000 years ago El Ninos were rare--every 15-20 years and
      then . . . I don't exactly recall--but I think that there were no
      warm events at all.

      This would make complete EMF sense (no El Ninos) during a
      particularly warm period. Why? Again, the Southern Ocean moves
      clockwise, from west to east. This is the direction of induction
      AGAINST cirrus. Now, again, the warmer a conducter in a saline
      solution--our oceans, the better it conducts. In this case, the EMF
      conducts BETTER, but AGAINST cirrus formation and the infra red
      warming that occurs underneath them. Now, this is where it gets
      tricky (Are you reading carefully, Fred Singer?)--because the oceans
      are both warmer and yet convective events cannot occur where
      induction is so against the cirrus--there is no new snow/ice and old
      ice melts from the warm oceans. Cold sea surface waters gyre around,
      with melted ice, having no cirrus warming, and the ocean maintains a
      steady state La Nina. This, in my view, is what we are already
      starting to see by human fiat--a dominance of melting and La Nina.

      But here is where it gets very interesting. As Milankovitch
      insOlation cools the oceans, the induction patterns are somewhat
      modulated. That is because a cooler ocean will not melt the ice and
      send it floating to Peru AND there is less conductivity for the main
      ocean, the Southern, that inducts AGAINST cirrus. Therefore cirrus
      survive longer and IR balances continue to favor convection. Ambiant
      storms then have a better chance to make it to Antarctica without
      having their electrical basis cut off. SSTs also warm for conductive
      paths of storms. Snow/ice falls to add to the ice pack and the oceans
      are so cold underneath the sheets that little melts.

      This takes us to what ENSO is-in the huge expanse of the tropical
      oceans biological upwelling on enourmous scales occurs. It occurs in
      such a way as to modulate the event itself and to cause relatively
      colder SSTs to become conduc tive by their biological chemistry even
      before regional SSTs warm up and become conductive just by their
      warmness.

      Now, what does this have to do with Antarctica? Simple--the melting
      is STEADY AND matches a warming peak and a modulated fall fo the
      flaring cycle energies. The modulated part explains both why the
      melting is so gradual and the meling part also explains how steady
      the system is--made so by the biosphere.

      And how crazy we are to mess with it like we are. For instance, CO2
      doubled will cause pH in rainwater to go from 5.6 to 5.45--changing
      its conductivity and for down the road, erosion abilitities. We are
      talking about changing voltages in a highly tuned system--not smart!
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