Solar Activity Report for 1/3/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The solar wind speed is up to the 600 km/sec mark tonight as the Earth
slides into a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Although
geomagnetic activity has remained low so far, that could change at any
time. Therefore, an aurora watch is in effect, especially for the
higher latitudes. The sunspot number, after languishing in the 50's
range for several days, has increased up to over 100 with the
emergence of a new sunspot region. That sunspot region, region 242,
has at least a remote chance for kicking off an M-class flare. The
high speed solar wind speeds should persist for another 24 hours or
so, and then begin to wane.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 108
SFI : 138
A index : 15
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 602.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa
IMF : 4.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.3 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. A very slight chance
of an isolated low level M-class flare is possible from Region 242.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to
active levels on day one of the forecast period due to high speed
stream coronal hole. Days two and three should see a return to quiet
to unsettled conditions as the geo-effective coronal hole wanes.
Recent significant solar flare activity :