** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
On the 19th at about 2200Z, an M-2 class flare erupted from near
sunspot region 229. That event fired off a full-halo CME at close to
900 km/sec. It should be arriving very soon. Aurora are a definite
possibility tonight and early morning on the 21st. The CME is
arriving on the heels of an already mildly elevated solar wind speed
that was a result of coronal hole effects. That was by no means the
only noteworthy flare that has occurred. Sunspot region 226 banged
off a very powerful M-6 class flare on Friday, although there is no
mention of an Earth-directed CME being associated with it. Meanwhile,
yet another coronal hole is just now rotating into view. Not much of
it is visible yet, but what can be seen is right on the solar equator.
Look for some effects from it to arrive later on next week. Sunspot
regions 226, 229, and 230 all have flare-producing potential. An
X-class flare from region 226 is not out of the question.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 203
SFI : 197
A index : 13
K index : 6
Solar wind speed : 477.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 3.1 nPa
IMF : 8.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.8 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R2
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 226, 229, and 230 all have the potential
for M-class production. Region 226 remains capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
Geomagnetic actviity forecast :
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are due to a geoeffective recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit became elevated following the
M2.7 event early in the period while the greater than 2 MeV electron
flux reached moderate levels late in the day.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
20-Dec-2002 1318Z M6.8
19-Dec-2002 2153Z M2.7