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Solar Activity Report for 12/18/02

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  • David <b1blancer1@earthlink.net>
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Things have definitely gotten more active since my last report. First of all, judging by the fact that the solar wind density is
    Message 1 of 2 , Dec 18, 2002
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Things have definitely gotten more active since my last report. First
      of all, judging by the fact that the solar wind density is quite high,
      I'd say we are definitely inside of the coronal hole solar wind
      stream, even though the solar wind speed hasn't risen that much. The
      Interplanetary Magnetic Field has shifted from a persistent
      north-pointing to a south-pointing orientation. If the solar wind
      speed kicks up any, we could be in for some aurora. Sunspot region
      226 has grown dramatically, and now spans more than 15 Earth diamaters
      from end to end. It's also become active, firing off two M-class
      flares in the last 24 hours. There are indications that this sunspot
      region has the potential of an X-class flare. Sunspot region 229 also
      shows flare-generating potential. The coronal hole affects should
      last at least through the 19th.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 261
      SFI : 197
      A index : 4
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 400.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 20.8 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : n/a

      IMF : 13.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Regions 226 and
      229 have the potential of producing M-class event activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
      levels once the onset of the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
      begins, which is expected to occur on day one of the forecast period.
      Day two should see predominantly unsettled to active conditions with
      isolated periods of minor storm levels. A return to predominantly
      unsettled conditions with isolated active periods should occur on day
      three.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      18-Dec-2002 0642Z M2.4
      17-Dec-2002 2335Z M1.6
      16-Dec-2002 1115Z M2.5
    • Mike Doran <mike@usinter.net>
      New Study Reveals Increased River Discharge to Arctic Ocean, Finding Could Mean Big Changes to Global Climate
      Message 2 of 2 , Dec 20, 2002
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        New Study Reveals Increased River Discharge to Arctic Ocean, Finding
        Could Mean Big Changes to Global Climate
        http://www.newswise.com/articles/2002/12/ARCTRIV.MBL.html
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