Overall solar activity is up this evening, and the geomagnetic
activity level may be due for the same as well. There are quite a few
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Of the bunch, sunspot
regions 225, 226, 227, and 229 all look like they have the potential
for producing an M-class flare. Rgeion 225 has already been active,
firing off a nice M-2 class flare today. There did not appear to be a
CME associated with the event. The solar wind speed is slowing down
now after the most recent encounter with a coronal hole solar wind
stream. The respite, however, will be brief. There is another
coronal hole that has rotated into an Earth-pointing position. We
should be seeing elevated solar wind speeds on or about the 19th.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 194
SFI : 203
A index : 5
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 457.7 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa
IMF : 6.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 6.0 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three
days. The regions discussed in section 1A above all appear to be
possible sources for isolated M-class flare activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
next 24-36 hours. Recurrent high speed stream effects are expected to
develop on day two, and affect geomagnetic activity with isolated
active and possible minor storm conditions, particularly on day three
of the forecast period.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
16-Dec-2002 1115Z M2.5