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Solar Activity Report for 12/5/02

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  • David
    Not a great deal has changed since my last report. The solar wind speed is still slightly elevated, and the density is also a bit above normal, although there
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 5, 2002
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      Not a great deal has changed since my last report. The solar wind
      speed is still slightly elevated, and the density is also a bit above
      normal, although there hasn't been any geomagnetic activity produced.
      The monotony was broken late on the 4th by an M2.5 class flare from
      sunspot region 213, which has recently rotated into view. It appears,
      however, to be something of an isolated event, as neither sunspot
      region 213, nor any of the other small sunspot regions dotting the
      solar surface, look to have much flare-generating potential. Still,
      an M-class flare isn't out of the question. We should be receiving
      the coronal hole solar wind gusts on or about the 7th. Time will tell
      what, if any, effect that has.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 153
      SFI : 149
      A index : 8
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 395.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 5.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.5 nPa

      IMF : 6.6 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.1 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with an increasing
      trend in chances for isolated moderate flare activity over the course
      of the next three days.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with an increasing
      trend in chances for isolated moderate flare activity over the course
      of the next three days.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      04-Dec-2002 2249Z M2.5
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