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Solar Activity Report for 11/16/02

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The corobal hole high speed solar wind stream I mentioned in my last report looks like it has arrived, judging from the current
    Message 1 of 11 , Nov 16, 2002
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The corobal hole high speed solar wind stream I mentioned in my last
      report looks like it has arrived, judging from the current solar wind
      speed and density. Therefore, an aurora watch is in effect, although
      there hasn't been much in the way of geomagnetic activity thusfar.
      That could, however, change at any time if the Interplanetary Magnetic
      Field takes on a south-pointing orientation. Solar activity could be
      headed for a period of increased activity as there are three sunspot
      regions visible that have flare producing potential, namely sunspot
      regions 191, 192, and 195. There was an M-2 class flare that occurred
      on 11/15, but it didn't have any optical event to correlate to it.
      That suggests that it came from a source just over the eastern or
      western limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 198, which is just now
      beginning to rotate into view, might have been the origin.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 162
      SFI : 199
      A index : 7
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 518.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 9.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.5 nPa

      IMF : 11.3 nT
      IMF Orientation : 8.9 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 191, Region
      192 and Region 195 have the potential for M-class activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active
      conditions. Coronal hole effects are expected during the period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      15-Nov-2002 0124Z M2.4
      14-Nov-2002 2226Z M1.0
    • David
      ** Aurora Watch in Effect ** A solar filament ( http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/filaments.html ) erupted on 11/24, and launched a full-halo CME right at
      Message 2 of 11 , Nov 26, 2002
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        ** Aurora Watch in Effect **

        A solar filament ( http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/filaments.html
        ) erupted on 11/24, and launched a full-halo CME right at Earth.
        (http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/images2002/2
        4nov02/cme_c3_big.gif
        ). The CME arrived today, and triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic
        storm. The storm has since subsided, but aurora are still a definite
        possibility. Skywatchers in the higher latitudes should be on the
        lookout for aurora around local midnight. There isn't much happening
        on the sunspot scene. sunspot region 198 looks like the only one
        visible that has any flare producing potential, and it is close to
        rotating over the western limb of the solar disk. However, as can be
        seen from this report, you don't necessarily need a flare to make
        things interesting! There is another coronal hole that is rotating
        into an Earth-pointing position. We could see some solar wind gusts
        from it by Thanksgiving weekend.

        The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

        NOAA sunspot number : 100
        SFI : 142
        A index : 12
        K index : 3

        Solar wind speed : 546.4 km/sec
        Solar wind density : 12.8 protons/cc
        Solar wind pressure : 6.6 nPa

        IMF : 11.5 nT
        IMF Orientation : 8.7 nT South

        Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
        reaching the G1 level occurred.

        Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
        Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

        Solar activity forecast :
        Solar activity is expected to remain low. Occasional C-class events
        continue to be possible from Region 197 (N24W84) and 198 (S18W61). A
        chance for an isolated M-class event is also possible from Region 198.

        Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to
        unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible for
        27 Nov as a result of the activity associated with the CME observed on
        24 Nov.

        Recent significant solar flare activity :
        None
      • Mike Doran
        http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/ Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90
        Message 3 of 11 , Nov 26, 2002
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          http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
          lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/

          Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day


          27-Nov-2002 1010.03 1011.75 -29.30 0.06 -5.50


          But it goes along with SSTs in ENSO 1-4 that now have a thin strip of
          yellow anomalies inside the red area that normally would indicate an
          El Nino. There are seven bands of Doran wave impacted SSTs from pole
          to pole compared to three in 1997, and that strip is consistant with
          this.

          It's all electrical, baby!!
        • David
          Hey Mike! I ve been thinking about you. How s your grandfather? Is everybody doing ok?
          Message 4 of 11 , Nov 27, 2002
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            Hey Mike! I've been thinking about you. How's your grandfather? Is
            everybody doing ok?
          • Mike Doran
            My grandfather passed on . . . Saturday. Saw him on Friday and said goodbye. Missed the funeral today because he lived longer then they thought he would
            Message 5 of 11 , Nov 27, 2002
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              My grandfather passed on . . . Saturday. Saw him on Friday and said
              goodbye. Missed the funeral today because he lived longer then they
              thought he would without water without an IV (he couldn't swallow).
              It was anti-climatic because he was very sick and not really there.

              Thanks for asking.

              More later.

              --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
              > Hey Mike! I've been thinking about you. How's your grandfather?
              Is
              > everybody doing ok?
            • David
              ... I m very sorry to hear that he s gone, but I m glad you got a chance to say goodbye to him. I know how important that is. Don t sweat missing the
              Message 6 of 11 , Nov 28, 2002
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                --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "Mike Doran" <mike@u...> wrote:
                > My grandfather passed on . . . Saturday. Saw him on Friday and said
                > goodbye. Missed the funeral today because he lived longer then they
                > thought he would without water without an IV (he couldn't swallow).
                > It was anti-climatic because he was very sick and not really there.
                >
                > Thanks for asking.
                >
                > More later.
                >

                I'm very sorry to hear that he's gone, but I'm glad you got a chance
                to say goodbye to him. I know how important that is. Don't sweat
                missing the funeral. Funerals aren't for those who have passed on,
                but for the family and friends who remain. It sounds like you loved
                your Grandfather and cared for him while he was still here, which is
                far more important than attending a funeral. My prayers are with you.
              • Mike Doran
                My grandmother had just left the hospital with my mother and sisters and was arriving home with us when the hospital s message came and gave us the news of his
                Message 7 of 11 , Nov 28, 2002
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                  My grandmother had just left the hospital with my mother and sisters
                  and was arriving home with us when the hospital's message came and
                  gave us the news of his passing. My father and her hugging in grief
                  was just about all I could take and while I was holding it together
                  in my greif I admit sobbing uncontrolbably for some time seeing them
                  in the pain of his passing.

                  Grandfather was the oldest of nine children, and survived all his
                  brothers and sisters--by 5 years. He survived the Battle of the
                  Bulge. He survived everyone except his wife of 71 years--who herself
                  was born in 1908.


                  For the first time this weekend I told my father , an Air Force
                  meteorologist in the 1960s, some of my ideas and he listened proudly
                  and when I told him that these ideas were very political he didn't
                  understand how they could be political. He moved from meteorology to
                  computer science/EE since computers were first made in the 1960s
                  (first w/ Control Data end then with spin offs) and knows his EMFs
                  well. He understood, for instance, that strikes were good "fractal"
                  evidence of large scale ALTERNATING EMFs despite their direct current
                  nature. He understood how clouds and fair weather were also good
                  fractal evidence--and even that fractal evidence is a good way of
                  synthesizing the data.

                  My brother, who is educated as a biologist, was more cynical and was
                  stuck on the uncertainty presented with all of the variables that
                  impact on climate, from humidity to the sun . . . I tried to explain
                  to him how powerful the postulation of modulation is in terms of its
                  testability and then how emperical the genetic data was on symbiotic
                  relationships shown, for instance, with Archae and that modulation
                  obviates the uncertainty arguement made by chaos idiots. Arguing
                  global change from this perspective is like arguing that your body
                  having a fever is not a symptom of health




                  I think my brother considers me a little crazy and that I should
                  leave this hobby of climate change alone and stick to the practice of
                  law. But when I started talking about predicting body temperatures
                  despite all the variables that impact your body's temperature, he
                  really had difficulty arguing like a chaos idiot. Part of the problem
                  is in the translation of going from complex to general, which is
                  necessary when synthesis is occurring, my brother was suspicious of
                  the general biological discussion I was making.

                  It wasn't that I was disagreeing with my brother in the ideas he was
                  denoting from his ken or speicalization, but that the CONNOTATION was
                  not correct. That in the process of correctly synthesizing these
                  ideas into a coherent and wholistic set of ideas that one could make
                  critical policy decisions about what he was saying was misleading and
                  that was with what I strongly disagreed. In my brother's case, our
                  discussion digressed to what the temperature of the skin would be
                  under cold water, and then after when the cold water was gone and the
                  skin glowed red--all the variables--yet, we know to look inside the
                  ear or under the tongue or under the arm pit to get a good biological
                  reading.

                  As another example of what I am talking about--on ABC there was a
                  discussion of the storm earlier this month that first hit San Fran
                  then spawned tornadoes then gave us a Nor'easter was somehow related
                  to El Nino. This, to me, is circular and simplistic and more
                  misleading then helpful. When Southern Californians think about El
                  Nino they think wet winters but indeed it has been bone dry . . . if
                  only the Colorado river health and the biological and electrical
                  health of the Gulf of California were discussed in the same breath
                  half of California wouldn't think that the worst drought in recorded
                  weather history in Southern California was about to end . . .

                  With my brother, for instance, more concerned WHY he viewed my
                  comments on biology . . . with cynacism. He was part of the genome
                  project and works for corporative America--so from the get go I know
                  he is less suspecious of the corporative state we currently suffer
                  from. But more then this the generalist, like myself, attempting to
                  translate cross disciplinary concerns, is going to run against the
                  emotions he demostrated. This younger brother, I know. I taught him
                  how to throw a curve ball. And I know what kind of a student he was,
                  and about his job at the University's Heart and Lung Institute doing
                  DNA research. I visited, and saw the resections of the living,
                  drugged mice and how the hearts were put in liquid nitrogen for
                  sequencing and so forth. I know my brother's opinion about his field
                  is unfettered by greed or vice. He holds it because he thinks it is
                  right.

                  But it comes with a context of his education and culture. And it is
                  basically a state of the science one for those in biological
                  sciences. I say this because it means that the things that I have to
                  say about climate as a generalist here have implications that cut
                  across disciplines and lead to insight and controversy--EVERYWHERE.

                  There is a very cool Brit research Med Doc named Joejohn McFadden who
                  has two systems books out. His one book is on quatum selection and I
                  learned about it over at the creation/evolution thread. Anyway, it
                  discusses how evolution has reacted to selective pressures on very
                  small, quantum scales, that over geo time have significance in the
                  gene expression. So this is the other end of the spectrum of what I
                  am talking about, and his work is no less controversial for those in
                  the biological sciences who view selection as from processes of
                  random mutations. He suggests a tie, for instance, between quatum
                  states and the way that the DNA might more actively mutate with a
                  feedback involved that varies probabilities of mutation given
                  conditions, and this is way outside of the accepted view of things
                  that mutations are random. Likewise, Gaia makes a comment on the
                  selective pressures themselves.

                  You would not believe the look of distrust from my brother when I was
                  talking about the Archae's evolved lack of complexity--that it
                  evolved such that it doesn't, which suggests that it is elemental to
                  Gaia processes in that if it does change it loses its very function
                  to modulate living processes--such that it wipes itself out. Hence,
                  it evolved AGAINST complexity.

                  My Gaia view is that over huge timescales we have already seen
                  McFadden's quantum selection in the form of oxydized chemistry and
                  that smoking and cancer is a good example of it--that Gaia would
                  promote those mutations to increase when "smoke" or oxydized
                  chemistry was about--because that was not the state of a living
                  earth. Hence, cancer from smoking is not a random defect that turns
                  out to be bad but an mathematical enhancement that reflects a genetic
                  pre history that favored mutation when the atmosphere became too full
                  of smoke. Humans, as complex creatures not only on the functional
                  side but on the genetic side, have learned to use fire despite the
                  microbrial biosphere's abhorance to it . . . with the aside that,
                  yes, fire has a purpose in regions that WERE part of a living
                  hydrology to burn them up w/ fair weather dominance and redistribute
                  living chemistry back to where the hydrology exists . . .

                  McFadden's other book involves consciousness as an EMF. This too is
                  interesting from a Gaia standpoint because it really touches in on
                  what it means to be conscious on a human level, and on the level of a
                  living earth. And I can almost see an atmospheric specialist like
                  Christy, who doubles as a Christain minister, turning different
                  colors in rage over this discussion, and of course the typical
                  Christain prone to ranking on me--calling me a earth worshipper--
                  another golden calf. Christains are taught from an early age, or
                  should I say indoctrinated, that there are horrible sects, from witch
                  craft to Catholics, who will send you to hell--so I can only imagine
                  that this global evolutionary science named after the greek goddess
                  who dealt with chaos would not sit well with those who try to carry
                  the torch of science and Christainity at the same time.

                  But carrying many torches is a badge of the contradictions that occur
                  as it means to be human.

                  ++++++++++++++++++

                  Climate emperically behaves in a steady state. Huge numbers of
                  factors that determine weather and hence cumulatively, climate, do
                  not point toward a random process or dynamic. To the contrary, by
                  process of rejecting the infinately improbable, of chaos times
                  itself, does one come to understand that it is modulation was,
                  modulation is, and the biological context it demostrates.

                  At the risk of stating the obvious, I have make a couple of
                  observations. First, climate is NOT weather. This is either in common
                  usage or in technical. Weather certainly is dominated by more random
                  inputs. Indeed, it is very much like my brother nit picking about
                  skin temperature in various places. The room temperature can vary and
                  may even be influenced substantially by the warm bodies inside of it,
                  but at the end of the day the body remains regulated as to
                  temperature and chemistry.

                  Likewise, if one were to discuss Milankovitch even as a "chaotic
                  oscillator" and do so in the context of global temperatures, the
                  discussion would miss whether or not the biosphere continued, where
                  it existed, even to a lessor extent, to modulate regional chemistries
                  and temperatures. This includes the idea that the biosphere could
                  move a bit.

                  But no matter where one goes with this discussion over which
                  triumphs, chaos or modulation, you must come to the conclusion that
                  the biosphere has prevailed over billions of years, and that the
                  examples of Mars and Venus, close to conditions of earth in terms of
                  orbital distance from the sun on either extreme, are places where
                  life could not exist. And if indeed the inputs were so random, so
                  chaotic to include extremes of insOlation and even extremes of solar
                  activity, radiation or electrical, that one would expect periods of
                  time when the biosphere would be severely tested. By itself, this
                  lends itself to a thought that life could not regulate conditions in
                  but a few places on earth and to the Gaia untrained eye the climate
                  is examined as a whole--making it appear that life is not modulating
                  what it can and that life is subject to conditions rather then in
                  control of them.

                  But over huge timescales there is more. The very character of the
                  siesmic and erosion processes was different. CO2 levels were greater,
                  say, in the Carbonferious and CO2 forms carbonic acid, which would
                  increase weathering rates. Oceans warmer and shallow which would
                  allow the hydrates to be more EMF proximate and the calcium
                  carbanate's impact to be less of a EMF sink. Upwelling events would
                  have differed. This would present altogether much different and
                  greater EMF feedbacks of heat retaining cirrus in the CONTEXT OF A
                  LESS LUMENOUS SUN. Hence, not only is Carl Sagan's mystery of a less
                  lumenous sun solved, but this certainly addresses the question of
                  whether globally climate emperically behaves in a steady state or
                  not. Without question a warmer, shallower ocean would produce more
                  electrical cirrus feedbacks. And while this may answer how the
                  regional hydrology would be warm enough to support a signal to noise
                  ratio that allowed local modulation of temperature and chemistry,
                  there is likely more to it. For instance, recently a microbe was
                  discovered that consumes (crude) oil and converts it to electrons.
                  For what purpose would that creature act so? And why would we only
                  now discover it--acting not in a global, or even a regional way that
                  would alter large scale EMFs? What about an age of oil, running down
                  the hydrology to the near shore oceans where these microbes might
                  exist, would provide a living earth feedback to the hydrology I
                  describe? How does this fit into Carl Sagan's picture of a increasing
                  lumenousity compare to this? How about selective pressures from the
                  so called "Snow Ball Earth's" as this dynamic was challenged?

                  The sum of it is that there is a failure in the climate discussion to
                  recognize that the reactions of the biosphere, which we can observe
                  emperically by DNA or other sets of data, has been ignored for what
                  it is. We recognize DNA in legal causes, but not in this debate? Why?
                  My view, again, is that the debate is dominated by those of narrow
                  kens who do not have biology backgrounds. They cannot make these
                  decidedly emperical comments, nor would their scholarly publications
                  include this type of analysis. One of the more ironic aspects of this
                  problem is how many in the climate community require more time to
                  observe the present human activity to understand its implications.
                  Sadly, they do not recognize the data that spans billions of
                  years . . . life itself.

                  Hoover, the great dam builder as Secratary of the Interior before his
                  Presidency, was a Republican. I have called Bush "Hoover II", just as
                  Bush was an ENRON oil type prior to his presidency, because his
                  fiscal and ecology policies will have the same impact on the world.
                  To me, Bush is the most dangerous, or evil person on the planet,
                  whether intended or not--leadership should be addressing climate
                  square on like Nixon took on cancer. But Bush continues to put out
                  the fire with gasoline, continues to push road fascism in the face of
                  Hubbert's peak. Anyone who knows what I know and would not be
                  political would be a FOOL.

                  In November 1997 Three Gorge was diverted and the Pac NW following a
                  500 year El Nino suffered a drought that has spred, IMHO, from the NW
                  down to the SW. Mongolia, proximate to the diversion from an EMF
                  standpoint, suffered a dust bowl not unlike our dust bowl following
                  changes to the Rio, Colorado, and Mississippi.

                  The river was rediverted to the partially completed dam last month,
                  and by 2009 it will be completed, with a lake behind the dam the size
                  of Lake Superior. The consequences to the Pacific biosphere will be a
                  disaster, in my view.

                  Interestingly, the more proximate changes to the delta seem to have
                  the greatest impact on the gaia feedbacks, which are tied to the near
                  shore ocean for much the same reasons why a tropical storm cannot be
                  sustained over land--electrical field of large scale lose their
                  conductive context. In the case of China since the Three Gorge
                  diversion there has been massive movements of millions of people to
                  the Yangtze delta (river involved w/ the dam) and sedimentation
                  retaining projects ongoing to deal with the demand for more land for
                  these peoples. The flow of biological material into the Yellow Sea
                  clearly has been altered. Meanwhile, near delta projects on the
                  Mississippi have altered the landfalling character of storms in the
                  GOM, which is something I have analyzed here all season. Similar
                  projects occurred just prior to Camille's landfall . . . These
                  changes are concurrent w/ farming changes upstream, and a delta which
                  has been losing over 25 square miles every year goiong now for over
                  ten years. CO2 as carbonic acid will increase pH. (A doubling will
                  rise pH about .15, or make rainwater more acidic). This too will
                  alter weathering, and the greatest impacts will be in the Northern
                  Hemisphere were there is more terresphere.

                  The scientific community has a long way to go on climate, and a ton
                  of political and social and religious evil to overcome getting there.





                  --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
                  > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "Mike Doran" <mike@u...> wrote:
                  > > My grandfather passed on . . . Saturday. Saw him on Friday and
                  said
                  > > goodbye. Missed the funeral today because he lived longer then
                  they
                  > > thought he would without water without an IV (he couldn't
                  swallow).
                  > > It was anti-climatic because he was very sick and not really
                  there.
                  > >
                  > > Thanks for asking.
                  > >
                  > > More later.
                  > >
                  >
                  > I'm very sorry to hear that he's gone, but I'm glad you got a chance
                  > to say goodbye to him. I know how important that is. Don't sweat
                  > missing the funeral. Funerals aren't for those who have passed on,
                  > but for the family and friends who remain. It sounds like you loved
                  > your Grandfather and cared for him while he was still here, which is
                  > far more important than attending a funeral. My prayers are with
                  you.
                • David
                  I just wanted to let you know that I m not ignoring the last post you made. Its just that I haven t had a chance to compose a reply yet. You covered a lot of
                  Message 8 of 11 , Nov 30, 2002
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                    I just wanted to let you know that I'm not ignoring the last post you
                    made. Its just that I haven't had a chance to compose a reply yet.
                    You covered a lot of ground! I will be answering back, probably
                    Monday evening.
                  • David
                    ... Boy do I know how you feel. Somehow, no matter how long you have to prepare for something like that, it always seems like you aren t quite prepared for it
                    Message 9 of 11 , Dec 3, 2002
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                      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "Mike Doran" <mike@u...> wrote:
                      > My grandmother had just left the hospital with my mother and sisters
                      > and was arriving home with us when the hospital's message came and
                      > gave us the news of his passing. My father and her hugging in grief
                      > was just about all I could take and while I was holding it together
                      > in my greif I admit sobbing uncontrolbably for some time seeing them
                      > in the pain of his passing.
                      >

                      Boy do I know how you feel. Somehow, no matter how long you have to
                      prepare for something like that, it always seems like you aren't quite
                      prepared for it when it happens.

                      > Grandfather was the oldest of nine children, and survived all his
                      > brothers and sisters--by 5 years. He survived the Battle of the
                      > Bulge. He survived everyone except his wife of 71 years--who herself
                      > was born in 1908.
                      >

                      He sounds like an incredible man, who lead a very full and rewarding
                      life. You and your family have my sincere condolences.


                      >
                      > My brother, who is educated as a biologist, was more cynical and was
                      > stuck on the uncertainty presented with all of the variables that
                      > impact on climate, from humidity to the sun . . . I tried to explain
                      > to him how powerful the postulation of modulation is in terms of its
                      > testability and then how emperical the genetic data was on symbiotic
                      > relationships shown, for instance, with Archae and that modulation
                      > obviates the uncertainty arguement made by chaos idiots. Arguing
                      > global change from this perspective is like arguing that your body
                      > having a fever is not a symptom of health

                      Well, in a way, your brother does have a point. There ARE many
                      variables that impact climate, only some of which man has an
                      understing of. It is a tremendously dynamic, fluid process.

                      >
                      > I think my brother considers me a little crazy and that I should
                      > leave this hobby of climate change alone and stick to the practice of
                      > law.

                      You're a lawyer? Cool! I didn't know that!



                      > His one book is on quatum selection and I
                      > learned about it over at the creation/evolution thread. Anyway, it
                      > discusses how evolution has reacted to selective pressures on very
                      > small, quantum scales, that over geo time have significance in the
                      > gene expression. So this is the other end of the spectrum of what I
                      > am talking about, and his work is no less controversial for those in
                      > the biological sciences who view selection as from processes of
                      > random mutations. He suggests a tie, for instance, between quatum
                      > states and the way that the DNA might more actively mutate with a
                      > feedback involved that varies probabilities of mutation given
                      > conditions, and this is way outside of the accepted view of things
                      > that mutations are random. Likewise, Gaia makes a comment on the
                      > selective pressures themselves.

                      Quantum mechanics and the changing of genes? Now there's a link I
                      hadn't heard about before, but it does sound very interesting.

                      > And I can almost see an atmospheric specialist like
                      > Christy, who doubles as a Christain minister, turning different
                      > colors in rage over this discussion, and of course the typical
                      > Christain prone to ranking on me--calling me a earth worshipper--
                      > another golden calf. Christains are taught from an early age, or
                      > should I say indoctrinated, that there are horrible sects, from witch
                      > craft to Catholics, who will send you to hell--so I can only imagine
                      > that this global evolutionary science named after the greek goddess
                      > who dealt with chaos would not sit well with those who try to carry
                      > the torch of science and Christainity at the same time.

                      I think that perhaps you're unfairly stereotyping Christians. I am a
                      Born-Again Christian, and I am not ashamed of that, nor do I try to
                      hide it. I suppose I do, however, match your description of being a
                      devotee of science while also being a Christian.

                      >
                      > But carrying many torches is a badge of the contradictions that occur
                      > as it means to be human.

                      On the contrary, I don't see it as a contradiction at all. In fact, I
                      think they compliment each other very nicely.

                      >
                      > But over huge timescales there is more. The very character of the
                      > siesmic and erosion processes was different. CO2 levels were greater,
                      > say, in the Carbonferious and CO2 forms carbonic acid, which would
                      > increase weathering rates. Oceans warmer and shallow which would
                      > allow the hydrates to be more EMF proximate and the calcium
                      > carbanate's impact to be less of a EMF sink. Upwelling events would
                      > have differed. This would present altogether much different and
                      > greater EMF feedbacks of heat retaining cirrus in the CONTEXT OF A
                      > LESS LUMENOUS SUN. Hence, not only is Carl Sagan's mystery of a less
                      > lumenous sun solved, but this certainly addresses the question of
                      > whether globally climate emperically behaves in a steady state or
                      > not.

                      I'm not familiar with the Carl Sagan theory you mentioned, but it
                      would be a mistake to believe that our sun's output has remained
                      completely constant throughout its life. Extensive observations have
                      shown that the energy output of even stable stars is not constant, but
                      is subject to some striking variations.

                      > For instance, recently a microbe was
                      > discovered that consumes (crude) oil and converts it to electrons.

                      Converts it to electrons??? I don't think you meant that the way it
                      came across!



                      > Bush was an ENRON oil type prior to his presidency, because his
                      > fiscal and ecology policies will have the same impact on the world.
                      > To me, Bush is the most dangerous, or evil person on the planet,
                      > whether intended or not--leadership should be addressing climate
                      > square on like Nixon took on cancer. But Bush continues to put out
                      > the fire with gasoline, continues to push road fascism in the face of
                      > Hubbert's peak. Anyone who knows what I know and would not be
                      > political would be a FOOL.

                      Oh come ON now! More dangerous and evil than Bin Laden? More than
                      Hussein? You may not agree with him, but I think this is taking it
                      much too far.

                      >
                      > In November 1997 Three Gorge was diverted and the Pac NW following a
                      > 500 year El Nino suffered a drought that has spred, IMHO, from the NW
                      > down to the SW. Mongolia, proximate to the diversion from an EMF
                      > standpoint, suffered a dust bowl not unlike our dust bowl following
                      > changes to the Rio, Colorado, and Mississippi.
                      >

                      Now I will back you up on this one, if maybe for different reasons. I
                      don't see how in the world they are going to handle the silt problem
                      up at the high end of the resevoir, far away from the dam. It would
                      have to be a dredging project like the world has never seen, and I
                      don't think they can pull it off. Add to that the fact that the
                      unless the dam is maintained VERY well, it is a very bad accident
                      waiting to happen. I fear for the people who are going to be
                      downstream from it. China has already lost one big dam because they
                      didn't maintain the floodgates and spillways properly, and a lot of
                      people died. This one scares me.
                    • mike
                      ... You are not here writing about an earth 7,000 years old. The Christian faith is much younger than this. Some find this a difficult thing to resolve. In
                      Message 10 of 11 , Dec 3, 2002
                      • 0 Attachment
                        > <BR>
                        > > His one book is on quatum selection and I <BR>
                        > > learned about it over at the creation/evolution thread. Anyway, it
                        > <BR>
                        > > discusses how evolution has reacted to selective pressures on very
                        > <BR>
                        > > small, quantum scales, that over geo time have significance in the
                        > <BR>
                        > > gene expression. So this is the other end of the spectrum of what
                        > I <BR>
                        > > am talking about, and his work is no less controversial for those
                        > in <BR>
                        > > the biological sciences who view selection as from processes of
                        > <BR>
                        > > random mutations. He suggests a tie, for instance, between quatum
                        > <BR>
                        > > states and the way that the DNA might more actively mutate with a
                        > <BR>
                        > > feedback involved that varies probabilities of mutation given <BR>
                        > > conditions, and this is way outside of the accepted view of things
                        > <BR>
                        > > that mutations are random. Likewise, Gaia makes a comment on the
                        > <BR>
                        > > selective pressures themselves. <BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > Quantum mechanics and the changing of genes?  Now there's a link
                        > I<BR>
                        > hadn't heard about before, but it does sound very interesting.<BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > >  And I can almost see an atmospheric specialist like <BR>
                        > > Christy, who doubles as a Christain minister, turning different
                        > <BR>
                        > > colors in rage over this discussion, and of course the typical
                        > <BR>
                        > > Christain prone to ranking on me--calling me a earth
                        > worshipper--<BR>
                        > > another golden calf. Christains are taught from an early age, or
                        > <BR>
                        > > should I say indoctrinated, that there are horrible sects, from
                        > witch <BR>
                        > > craft to Catholics, who will send you to hell--so I can only
                        > imagine <BR>
                        > > that this global evolutionary science named after the greek
                        > goddess <BR>
                        > > who dealt with chaos would not sit well with those who try to
                        > carry <BR>
                        > > the torch of science and Christainity at the same time. <BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > I think that perhaps you're unfairly stereotyping Christians.  I
                        > am a<BR>
                        > Born-Again Christian, and I am not ashamed of that, nor do I try to<BR>
                        > hide it.  I suppose I do, however, match your description of being
                        > a<BR>
                        > devotee of science while also being a Christian. <BR>

                        You are not here writing about an earth 7,000 years old. The Christian
                        faith is much younger than this. Some find this a difficult thing to
                        resolve. In the end, I am probably more of a Kirkagaurdian Christian--
                        but, you know, if you meet Jesus 2,000 years ago and weren't a wine
                        drinker, more of a beer drinker like me, you may not have gone to the
                        same bars . . .

                        > > But over huge timescales there is more. The very character of the
                        > <BR>
                        > > siesmic and erosion processes was different. CO2 levels were
                        > greater, <BR>
                        > > say, in the Carbonferious and CO2 forms carbonic acid, which would
                        > <BR>
                        > > increase weathering rates. Oceans warmer and shallow which would
                        > <BR>
                        > > allow the hydrates to be more EMF proximate and the calcium <BR>
                        > > carbanate's impact to be less of a EMF sink. Upwelling events
                        > would <BR>
                        > > have differed. This would present altogether much different and
                        > <BR>
                        > > greater EMF feedbacks of heat retaining cirrus in the CONTEXT OF A
                        > <BR>
                        > > LESS LUMENOUS SUN. Hence, not only is Carl Sagan's mystery of a
                        > less <BR>
                        > > lumenous sun solved, but this certainly addresses the question of
                        > <BR>
                        > > whether globally climate emperically behaves in a steady state or
                        > <BR>
                        > > not. <BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > I'm not familiar with the Carl Sagan theory you mentioned, but it<BR>
                        > would be a mistake to believe that our sun's output has remained<BR>
                        > completely constant throughout its life.  Extensive observations
                        > have<BR>
                        > shown that the energy output of even stable stars is not constant,
                        > but<BR>
                        > is subject to some striking variations.<BR>

                        I am not familiar w/ theories of shorter term variability other then the
                        one related to the sun's EMF.

                        However, Sagan's famous essay discussion centers around an early, cooler
                        sun over huge timescales. As you may know, that was Sagan's field.
                        Anyway, he talked about how on billion year timescales the sun was 25%
                        less lumenous. The future faces a similar problem even before the red
                        giant phase.

                        What you are saying about variability only ADDS to my point. Namely that
                        a chaotic system is inconsistant with our sun's behavior if climate is
                        steady as it is. IOW, you have changing input into a chaotic system it
                        is going to be even MORE crazy everywhere, when indeed there are tropical
                        places, cold places and so forth. Modulation of chaotic inputs makes
                        much more sense if what we are discovering is MORE varied input. It
                        makes the modulation that much more critical.

                        > <BR>
                        > > For instance, recently a microbe was <BR>
                        > > discovered that consumes (crude) oil and converts it to electrons.
                        > <BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > Converts it to electrons???  I don't think you meant that the way
                        > it<BR>
                        > came across!<BR>


                        I do need to re-look up this one. The notion I gather was that
                        collectively these microbes acted like biological fuel cells. I will
                        look this one up again.

                        > <BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > > Bush was an ENRON oil type prior to his presidency, because his
                        > <BR>
                        > > fiscal and ecology policies will have the same impact on the
                        > world. <BR>
                        > > To me, Bush is the most dangerous, or evil person on the planet,
                        > <BR>
                        > > whether intended or not--leadership should be addressing climate
                        > <BR>
                        > > square on like Nixon took on cancer. But Bush continues to put out
                        > <BR>
                        > > the fire with gasoline, continues to push road fascism in the face
                        > of <BR>
                        > > Hubbert's peak. Anyone who knows what I know and would not be <BR>
                        > > political would be a FOOL. <BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > Oh come ON now!  More dangerous and evil than Bin Laden? 
                        > More than<BR>
                        > Hussein?  You may not agree with him, but I think this is taking
                        > it<BR>
                        > much too far.<BR>


                        Bin Laden's and Husein's of the world exist but they do not have the
                        ability to hurt so many people. Bush scares me way more then these two.
                        And BTW, I was active in the military during desert 'shield', but I was
                        lucky to be inactivated as a reserve during the 'storm' part of it. In
                        my view Bush is wagging the dog bigtime and this is all about oil.


                        > <BR>
                        > > <BR>
                        > > In November 1997 Three Gorge was diverted and the Pac NW following
                        > a <BR>
                        > > 500 year El Nino suffered a drought that has spred, IMHO, from the
                        > NW <BR>
                        > > down to the SW. Mongolia, proximate to the diversion from an EMF
                        > <BR>
                        > > standpoint, suffered a dust bowl not unlike our dust bowl
                        > following <BR>
                        > > changes to the Rio, Colorado, and Mississippi. <BR>
                        > > <BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > Now I will back you up on this one, if maybe for different
                        > reasons.  I<BR>
                        > don't see how in the world they are going to handle the silt
                        > problem<BR>
                        > up at the high end of the resevoir, far away from the dam.  It
                        > would<BR>
                        > have to be a dredging project like the world has never seen, and I<BR>
                        > don't think they can pull it off.  Add to that the fact that
                        > the<BR>
                        > unless the dam is maintained VERY well, it is a very bad accident<BR>
                        > waiting to happen.  I fear for the people who are going to be<BR>
                        > downstream from it.  China has already lost one big dam because
                        > they<BR>
                        > didn't maintain the floodgates and spillways properly, and a lot of<BR>
                        > people died.  This one scares me.<BR>
                        > <BR>
                        > <BR>

                        The dam has holes in it for the mud, but this does not address how sed
                        and flow will alter the biological conditions in the oceans . . .
                        > <BR>
                        > </tt>
                        >
                        > <br>
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                      • David
                        ... True, the Christ part of the faith has only been around since Jesus walked the Earth. However, the Jewissh roots go back much, much further. ... the ...
                        Message 11 of 11 , Dec 4, 2002
                        • 0 Attachment
                          > You are not here writing about an earth 7,000 years old. The Christian
                          > faith is much younger than this. Some find this a difficult thing to
                          > resolve. In the end, I am probably more of a Kirkagaurdian Christian--
                          > but, you know, if you meet Jesus 2,000 years ago and weren't a wine
                          > drinker, more of a beer drinker like me, you may not have gone to the
                          > same bars . . .

                          True, the "Christ" part of the faith has only been around since Jesus
                          walked the Earth. However, the Jewissh roots go back much, much further.


                          > I am not familiar w/ theories of shorter term variability other then
                          the
                          > one related to the sun's EMF.
                          >
                          > However, Sagan's famous essay discussion centers around an early,
                          cooler
                          > sun over huge timescales. As you may know, that was Sagan's field.
                          > Anyway, he talked about how on billion year timescales the sun was 25%
                          > less lumenous. The future faces a similar problem even before the red
                          > giant phase.
                          >
                          > What you are saying about variability only ADDS to my point. Namely
                          that
                          > a chaotic system is inconsistant with our sun's behavior if climate is
                          > steady as it is. IOW, you have changing input into a chaotic system it
                          > is going to be even MORE crazy everywhere, when indeed there are
                          tropical
                          > places, cold places and so forth. Modulation of chaotic inputs makes
                          > much more sense if what we are discovering is MORE varied input. It
                          > makes the modulation that much more critical.

                          Climate may be relatively steady now, but history has shown it has
                          been subject to some very wide variations. Antarctica was once a
                          forest! One need only go back a few thousand years to fine 1/3 of the
                          globe covered with ice. It wouldn't surprise me that the sun may have
                          been significantly less luminous in its early life.
                          >
                          > > <BR>
                          > > > For instance, recently a microbe was <BR>
                          > > > discovered that consumes (crude) oil and converts it to
                          electrons.
                          > > <BR>
                          > > <BR>
                          > > Converts it to electrons???  I don't think you meant that the way
                          > > it<BR>
                          > > came across!<BR>
                          >
                          >
                          > I do need to re-look up this one. The notion I gather was that
                          > collectively these microbes acted like biological fuel cells. I will
                          > look this one up again.

                          Ahhh, now that makes more sense! What you're saying is that the
                          chemical reaction that the bacteria use to digest the oil generares an
                          electrical current. Now that I could believe.


                          > Bin Laden's and Husein's of the world exist but they do not have the
                          > ability to hurt so many people. Bush scares me way more then these
                          two.
                          > And BTW, I was active in the military during desert 'shield', but I was
                          > lucky to be inactivated as a reserve during the 'storm' part of it. In
                          > my view Bush is wagging the dog bigtime and this is all about oil.
                          >

                          Allright, I'll give you that. It MAY be at least partly about oil.
                          The fact is that our nation is very dependent upon oil, be it right or
                          wrong. Our economy, and many, many jobs, depend upon the free flow of
                          oil. Take that away, and our nation is in big trouble.


                          > The dam has holes in it for the mud, but this does not address how sed
                          > and flow will alter the biological conditions in the oceans . . .

                          The problem, however, is that much of the silt will begin to settle
                          out far upstream from the dam, and never make it down that far. The
                          top end of the resevoir could become comepletely choked off with it if
                          it isn't removed somehow.
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