Re: [Methane Hydrate Club] Solar Activity Report for 11/11/02
- View SourceDavid, I do not understand what you mean when you say that the magnetic
field is pointing North or South. And why this puts a lid on significant
geomagnetic activity. Walter
On Tue, 12 Nov 2002 05:18:20 -0000 "David" <b1blancer1@...>
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The CME from the M-4 flare struck home on Nov 11, and not a whole lot
happened. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was pointing north when
the CME arrived, which pretty much put a lid on any significant
geomagnetic activity. The solar wind speed is still over the 600
km/sec mark after peaking at nearly 700 earlier today. With the
elevated solar wind speed, some aurora are still at least an outside
possibility, and an aurora watch remains in effect. Look for some
coronal hole effects to be arriving here on or about the 16th.
Sunspot region 180 remains a flare-producer, although it is close to
the western limb of the solar disk.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 197
SFI : 185
A index : 10
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 618.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 7.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 5.1 nPa
IMF : 9.0 nT
IMF Orientatiin : 2.8 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 180 remains the most
likely source of M-class flares and Region 191 appears capable of an
M-flare as well.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
next few hours. The arrival of a shock from the M4/CME flare that
occurred on 09 November is still possible. Active to storm conditions
are possible on 12 November if this CME impacts the Earth. SOHO-LASCO
images received after the three-day geomagnetic forecast was finalized
suggest that another CME was associated with the M1/1n flare mentioned
in Part IA. Consequently, the numerical and probability forecasts for
the third day in Parts V and VI below may be modified in tomorrow's
(See this link for all the things the above forecast is referencing :
Recent significant solar flare activity :
11-Nov-2002 1620Z M1.8
11-Nov-2002 0733Z M2.9
10-Nov-2002 0321Z M2.4
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- View Source--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., foryeshua1@j... wrote:
> David, I do not understand what you mean when you say that the magneticsignificant
> field is pointing North or South. And why this puts a lid on
> geomagnetic activity. WalterAs the solar wind propogates out from the sun, it carries a magnetic
field along with it. Don't ask me the physics behind exactly how that
works! Anyway, its called the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF),
and it can have either a north-pointing or south-pointing polarity.
Did you know that every compass on Earth is wrong? They're marked 180
degrees off. What we call the south pole is actually Earth's magnetic
NORTH pole! Earth's magnetic field lines actually emerge from the
south magnetic pole and reenter the Earth at the north magnetic pole.
That makes the south pole, well, the north pole!
An IMF that has a north polarity will reinforce Earth's own magnetic
field, since the magnetic field lines will be flowing in the same
direction as Earth's. That will lessen geomagnetic activity. A
south-pointing IMF, however, will "collide" with and weaken Earth's
magnetic field. That lessens Earth's magnetic shielding, and makes
the Earth more vulnerable to the high speed solar wind.
When high speed solar wind strikes the Earth's magnetic field lines,
it causes electrons to be accelerated along the field lines. They
come crashing down at the magnetic poles and spread out, energizing
the upper armosphere. The result is....aurora!