Solar Activity Report for 11/8/02
- This is the first time in quite a few days that an aurora watch hasn't
been in effect! The solar wind speed has finally dropped back to more
of a nowmal level, and all is quiet for the time being. The respite,
however, may be short lived. There are two coronal holes visible
tonight. The first is facing in our direction, but it looks to be too
far north on the solar disk to send any strong solar wind gusts
towards Earth. It is possible, however, that we might see a little
activity from it. If we do, it should be either Saturday or Sunday.
The other coronal hole is just now rotating into view over the eastern
limb of the solar disk. That one is straddling the solar equator, and
will likely be sending some high speed solar wind towards Earth when
it rotates into position. Look for that to be a factor in about 10
days or so. Sunspot region 180 is still a potential flare-producer,
although it has been quiet thusfar. The sunspot number is actually
rather high, but the Solar Flux Index(SFI) is somewhat lower than the
sunspot number. That indicates that while there may be several
sunspot groups present, they aren't particularly engetic.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 252
SFI : 189
A index : 7
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 379.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 6.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.8 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 180 is the
most likely source of M-class flares.
Geomagnetic actvity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active by 10
November due to a coronal hole.
Recent significant solar flare activity :