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Solar Activity Report for 11/6/02

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** An aurora watch is still in effect this evening as the Earth remains inside of a high speed solar wind stream. I had thought that
    Message 1 of 2 , Nov 6, 2002
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      An aurora watch is still in effect this evening as the Earth remains
      inside of a high speed solar wind stream. I had thought that the
      solar wind was slowing down last night, but the speed has picked back
      up around the 600 km/sec mark. There have been some beautiful aurora
      spotted and photographed over the last few days, which can be seen
      here :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_03nov02.html .
      Most of the sightings have been in Alaska, Canada, and northern
      Europe, although there was a brief aurora display seen in Michigan.
      Sunspot region 180 has grown quite a bit over the last couple of days,
      and now spans almost 10 Earth-diameters end to end. It has flare
      producing potential, as does sunspot region 177.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 234
      SFI : 185
      A index : 19
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 597.0 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.0 nPa

      IMF : 5.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.1 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 180 will likely
      produce C and M-class activity. Region 177 has potential for a small
      M-class flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active
      periods with occasional minor, or even major storm periods at high
      latitudes.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • Mike Doran
      Check out the strike link: http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag87.html One of the wettest places in the United States is a small coastal strip where the
      Message 2 of 2 , Nov 7, 2002
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        Check out the strike link:

        http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag87.html


        One of the wettest places in the United States is a small coastal
        strip where the Redwoods grow in NW California/Oregon.

        And folks--it hasn't rained here since spring. Yesterday we were
        supposed to get rain but it came last night. The 'ambiant' winds
        certainly cause upper atmospheric distrubances this time of year--BUT
        how much is EMF related--how much is Gaia?

        If you look at the strike cloud link, two things pop out. First,
        these are the first strikes in the Pacific we have seen in . . .
        oh . . . 8 months. My view is that the jet can push ion
        concentrations and create the EMF instability that both makes strikes
        possible and for the cirrus cloud dynamic to change and support
        convection, precipitation.

        Second, the Gulf of California, or Sea of Cortez, continues to be
        Gaia poor and VERY fair weather. Incredibly fair weather. This sets
        up a nice contrast for the convective areas to pivot around the fair
        weather, from an EMF standpoint. We saw a pattern where the sub
        tropical jet was combining with movements of the mid lat jet SE and
        taking storms like Kenna to Texas. In those instances, the GOM was
        very Gaia healthy contrasting the fair weather, poor health of the
        GOC/SOC. Now, the late fall--spring pattern is setting in. And once
        again the poor Gaia health is enhancing the activity in the NW with
        this storm, and the ONLY strike activity seen on the whole map is
        over coastal waters in the NW.

        The rest of the nation is remarkably fair weather. Now, this fair
        weather conditions are interesting not just because of ambiant winds
        but because of the solar wind conditions. They are elevated. The
        SOI is positive, and has been for two weeks, really, and even the 30
        day is approaching zero and should reach it today. The 90 day
        remains slightly negative at about -8. SSTs are slightly warm
        anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, but unlike a warm phase of ENSO
        are and have been cold anomaly in the coastal SW Pacific. To me,
        this shows how Gaia poor this region is, and how the biosphere trumps
        even solar conditions that would support a warm event. Down under
        has experienced the SOI just like a warm event--but not so here in
        the United States.

        Now, from an EMF standpoint, to have a wind reversal is remarkable
        when SSTs are warm anomaly. That is because this shift in wind thus
        occurs in the context of a much more conductive ocean. That means
        that the induction AGAINST cirrus in the warmest, most conductive
        waters of the Pacific and impedance for low frequancy ion movements
        is very strong there. We are talking very strong fair weather
        voltages.

        And I think this is reflected in how most of the United States is
        fair weather right now. While this kind of thing is going to support
        strong Doran waves, it also supports a quick flip flop back to La
        Nina or nuetral SSTs. And while we are in the midst of a strong
        earth directed CME (high proton space weather around 600) overall the
        forecast for the flaring/sun spot cycle is that we are on the down
        turn from the double peak. That means that if there continues to be
        a positive SOI you can almost be certain that a dry pattern will set
        in for the US, and we will have a colder winter.

        This pattern may be punctuated by severe weather because when we do
        have reversals of the SOI you are going to have back and forth
        movements of EMFs that lead to fairly strong IR instabilities under
        cirrus clouds. It is going to be a fun winter to watch.
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