Solar Activity Report for 11/6/02
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
An aurora watch is still in effect this evening as the Earth remains
inside of a high speed solar wind stream. I had thought that the
solar wind was slowing down last night, but the speed has picked back
up around the 600 km/sec mark. There have been some beautiful aurora
spotted and photographed over the last few days, which can be seen
Most of the sightings have been in Alaska, Canada, and northern
Europe, although there was a brief aurora display seen in Michigan.
Sunspot region 180 has grown quite a bit over the last couple of days,
and now spans almost 10 Earth-diameters end to end. It has flare
producing potential, as does sunspot region 177.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 234
SFI : 185
A index : 19
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 597.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.0 nPa
IMF : 5.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.1 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 180 will likely
produce C and M-class activity. Region 177 has potential for a small
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active
periods with occasional minor, or even major storm periods at high
Recent significant solar flare activity :
- Check out the strike link:
One of the wettest places in the United States is a small coastal
strip where the Redwoods grow in NW California/Oregon.
And folks--it hasn't rained here since spring. Yesterday we were
supposed to get rain but it came last night. The 'ambiant' winds
certainly cause upper atmospheric distrubances this time of year--BUT
how much is EMF related--how much is Gaia?
If you look at the strike cloud link, two things pop out. First,
these are the first strikes in the Pacific we have seen in . . .
oh . . . 8 months. My view is that the jet can push ion
concentrations and create the EMF instability that both makes strikes
possible and for the cirrus cloud dynamic to change and support
Second, the Gulf of California, or Sea of Cortez, continues to be
Gaia poor and VERY fair weather. Incredibly fair weather. This sets
up a nice contrast for the convective areas to pivot around the fair
weather, from an EMF standpoint. We saw a pattern where the sub
tropical jet was combining with movements of the mid lat jet SE and
taking storms like Kenna to Texas. In those instances, the GOM was
very Gaia healthy contrasting the fair weather, poor health of the
GOC/SOC. Now, the late fall--spring pattern is setting in. And once
again the poor Gaia health is enhancing the activity in the NW with
this storm, and the ONLY strike activity seen on the whole map is
over coastal waters in the NW.
The rest of the nation is remarkably fair weather. Now, this fair
weather conditions are interesting not just because of ambiant winds
but because of the solar wind conditions. They are elevated. The
SOI is positive, and has been for two weeks, really, and even the 30
day is approaching zero and should reach it today. The 90 day
remains slightly negative at about -8. SSTs are slightly warm
anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, but unlike a warm phase of ENSO
are and have been cold anomaly in the coastal SW Pacific. To me,
this shows how Gaia poor this region is, and how the biosphere trumps
even solar conditions that would support a warm event. Down under
has experienced the SOI just like a warm event--but not so here in
the United States.
Now, from an EMF standpoint, to have a wind reversal is remarkable
when SSTs are warm anomaly. That is because this shift in wind thus
occurs in the context of a much more conductive ocean. That means
that the induction AGAINST cirrus in the warmest, most conductive
waters of the Pacific and impedance for low frequancy ion movements
is very strong there. We are talking very strong fair weather
And I think this is reflected in how most of the United States is
fair weather right now. While this kind of thing is going to support
strong Doran waves, it also supports a quick flip flop back to La
Nina or nuetral SSTs. And while we are in the midst of a strong
earth directed CME (high proton space weather around 600) overall the
forecast for the flaring/sun spot cycle is that we are on the down
turn from the double peak. That means that if there continues to be
a positive SOI you can almost be certain that a dry pattern will set
in for the US, and we will have a colder winter.
This pattern may be punctuated by severe weather because when we do
have reversals of the SOI you are going to have back and forth
movements of EMFs that lead to fairly strong IR instabilities under
cirrus clouds. It is going to be a fun winter to watch.