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Time to Bag on Daly

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  • Mike Doran
    It is getting close in the fall to the rainy season here in California I have to make take my cheap shots at John Daly.
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 2, 2002
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      It is getting close in the fall to the rainy
      season here in California I have to make take my cheap shots at John
      Daly.

      http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/sun-enso.htm

      First things first. Daly has played with his data set so it looks
      like we
      have had this string of very strong SOI readings that are negative.
      It is
      true that SSTs have been slighly warm in the El Nino 3,4 waters, and
      only
      recently slight warming in the El Nino 1,2 waters, but the SOI has
      actually
      swung breifly positive several times, including this past week. More
      on that
      in a moment. But suffice to say that the past two weeks with a
      positive SOI
      runs right against 'El Nino' as defined by some. And while the
      drought in Oz
      is mentioned, it fails to mention the drought in California--which
      should be
      getting hammered with rain during an El Nino.

      The truth is that John Daly is a fossil fuel, chaos idiot. Stuck in
      the
      brain set of the physical sciences, he has failed to realize that
      climate is
      part of a living earth.

      His lacky Theodore writes:


      "Though there are no strict physical arguments that could explain in
      detail
      how solar activity causes ENSO events, it is quite possible to
      develop working
      hypotheses that suggest potential connections. Figure 2 shows that
      energetic
      solar eruptions coincide with the Golden section phase 0.382 in the
      subcycles
      of the sunspot cycle which are closely correlated with ENSO events,
      as shown
      in Figure 4. Strong solar eruptions cause the highest velocities in
      the solar
      wind and create shockwaves that compress and intensify magnetic
      fields in the
      sun's plasma moving outward to the boundary of the solar system. The
      solar
      wind strenghtened by solar eruptions weakens cosmic rays. The ensuing
      Svensmark-effect is regionally strongest where cloudiness is highest.
      It is
      very high around Indonesia [40] where el Niños seem to develop. So
      one would
      think that shrinking cloud cover, stronger irradiance, intensified
      Hadley
      circulation and changing trade winds, caused by the modulating effect
      of solar
      eruptions on cosmic rays, improve the conditions for the birth of El
      Niños.
      This all the more so as M. Pudvokin and S. Veretenenko [42] as well as
      Svensmark and Friis-Christensen [53] have shown that Forbush
      decreases - dips
      in cosmic rays by several percent within 2 days after a strong solar
      eruption
      - are associated with immediate decreases in cloudiness by 2 - 3
      percent that
      last a week or longer. Such short-term effects, especially when they
      trigger
      tropical cyclones [44], may release and sustain El Niños.

      The enhancement of the Svensmark-effect by the very high cloudiness
      around
      Indonesia is countered by the circumstance that Indonesia is situated
      on the
      equator where the field lines of the Earth's magnetic field run
      parallel with
      the surface. As less energetic cosmic-ray particles follow the
      magnetic field
      lines on screw shaped trajectories, it is more difficult for them to
      penetrate
      into the atmosphere above the equator than near the poles where the
      field
      lines run vertically. This magnetic obstacle is especially effective
      when
      particles try to penetrate to the Earth's surface. They reach the
      ground only
      when their energy is at the 15 GeV level. Yet it is much easier to
      reach
      targets higher up in the atmosphere. One of the stations that observe
      cosmic
      rays, the Huancayo Neutron Monitor, is located close to the equator
      (12° S 75°
      W), but at an altitude of 3400 m where the cutoff rigidity is not as
      high. The
      Huancayo reports reflect the change in cosmic rays as well as data by
      other
      stations at higher latitudes. Especially, it has to be taken into
      consideration that high clouds like cirrus, cirrocumulus, and
      cirrostratus
      reach altitudes of 18 km at the equator where the height of the
      tropopause
      goes far beyond that at the poles (8 km). Cumulonimbus reaching an
      altitude of
      10 - 14 km at temperate latitudes climb to 16 - 22 km in the tropics,
      where
      they form huge cloud clusters covering ranges of more than 100 km
      [33]. The
      generation of secondary cosmic rays by primary cosmic rays and the
      related
      degree of ionization reach a maximum (300 pairs of ions/cm3 sec) just
      at 20 km
      altitude [16], close to the altitude of tropical cumulonimbus as well
      as of
      cirrus, cirrocumulus, and cirrostratus.

      Furthermore, the geomagnetic equator, not the geographical equator is
      relevant as to the cutoff conditions of cosmic ray particles. At
      present the
      observed geomagnetic pole in the Northern Hemisphere is at 73° N 100
      W.
      Calculation shows that a location on the equator in Indonesia
      (longitude 105°
      E) has a geomagnetic latitude of -15° where particles can easier
      penetrate to
      those high altitudes where clouds are to be found in the tropics. All
      arguments taken together, it is not unimaginable that the Svensmark-
      effect
      works in the region close to the equator where El-Niños are thought
      to come
      into existence. Conditions should be favourable for La Niña when
      cosmic rays
      are very strong because the sun's eruptional activity is
      exceptionally weak.

      Further working hypotheses may be based on the fact that solar X-rays
      and UV
      radiation increase sharply at the time of energetic solar eruptions.
      It would
      go beyond the frame of this paper to describe these working
      hypotheses in
      detail. They can only be presented in a nutshell. Flares increase the
      sun's UV
      radiation level by at least16 percent [15]. Ozone in the stratosphere
      absorbs
      this excess energy that causes local warming. The 70-mb polar vortex
      is
      displaced. This disturbance is propagated downward to the troposphere
      where it
      affects the intensity of the Hadley circulation. D. E. Hartley, J. T.
      Villarin, R. X. Black , and C. A. Davis [14] have shown that there is
      a
      dynamical link between stratospheric polar vortex distortions and
      meteorological events in the troposphere. Observations by other
      authors
      confirm this result [12, 18, 37, 45, 46]. As El Niños are linked to
      trade
      winds and tradewinds to the Hadley cells that may be affected by
      circulation
      change in the stratosphere, it seems plausible that energetic solar
      eruptions
      could be the cause of this chain of links. This all the more so as
      observations show distinct change in diverse weather phenomena within
      days
      after energetic solar eruptions [4, 8, 48, 49, 55].

      Solar X-rays around 10 Å intensify by a factor of 100 or more during
      moderate-sized flares, and strong flares can amplify the X-ray level
      by a
      factor of 1000. I refer to my paper "Solar Rotation, Impulses of the
      Torque in
      the Sun's Motion, and Climatic Variation" [25] which describes how
      strong
      X-rays produced by energetic solar eruptions may enhance thunderstorm
      activity. Severe thunderstorms are linked to tropical cyclones [54]
      which may
      trigger and sustain El Niños [44]. A marked lull in the sun's UV
      radiation and
      X-rays should be favourable for La Niñas.

      These theoretical arguments were only presented to show that it is
      not out of
      the question that there are physical links between energetic solar
      eruptions
      and El Niños. Whether these lines of reasoning turn out correct or
      spurious is
      of no import regarding the practical results of this investigation.
      They leave
      little doubt that solar activity and ENSO events are closely
      connected to such
      a degree that long-range forecasts beyond the 12-month lead time are
      now
      possible. The consequences of these results for the hypothesis of
      anthropogenic climate change are far-reaching. As stated in the
      beginning,
      ENSO events are the strongest source of variability in the global
      climate
      system and explain most of the global temperature anomalies. Our
      result that
      solar activity regulates these powerful climate phenomena shows
      clearly that
      the impact of the sun's variability has been underestimated in a way
      that
      reverses the proportions. Recent research published by H. Svensmark
      [52] and
      N. Calder [7] corroborate this statement. Actually, solar activity
      turns out
      to be the dominant factor in climate change. IPCC scientists can no
      longer
      uphold their contention that "solar variability over the next 50
      years will
      not induce a prolonged forcing significant in comparison with the
      effect of
      increasing carbon dioxide concentrations."


      Now, the false assumption that Theodore makes is that CO2 doesn't
      somehow
      impact the EMFs (electro magnetic fields) he describes. Indeed,
      methane
      hydrates are EMF insulating. Further, hydrology is going to impact
      the
      salinity and the upwelling, and therefore temperature profiles of
      SSTs. This
      in turn varies the EMF feature of the oceans called 'IMPEDANCE'. Why
      is this
      dignificant? Because EMFs by what I call 'Doran waves' alter the
      behavior of
      cirrus clouds--in a similar way as described above, except as to add
      that the
      low frequency EMFs are MODULATED by the biosphere, by a living earth,
      that IS
      directly impacted by CO2. CO2 not only forms a critical part of the
      biosphere
      but forms carbonic acid in rain. This impacts weathering, hydrology
      and so
      forth.

      The proof? Talk about fractals--strike data and tropical cyclones
      are a
      start. But the finishing is in the genetics of life.

      Anyway, while this is largely a RWN site, I just had to drop in and
      rub it
      the faces of the false skeptics here. The solar flaring cycle is on
      the down
      slope and as far as California is concerned--there is no El Nino.
      While I
      understand that the Japanese have an SOI based definition of ENSO, it
      proves
      to be meaningless if it cannot predict climate. And it can't because
      while it
      is true that solar activity is patterned and impacts the EMF, and
      because the
      Pacific is a large conductive body, where wind directions alter EMFs
      by
      induction and hence alter impedance values, and therefore a patterned
      solar
      EMF fingerprint leaves correlations with ENSO. HOWEVER, the VERY
      REASON SOLAR
      ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO LEAVE A FINGERPRINT IS BECAUSE CLIMATE IS
      MODULATED. Put
      another way, the biosphere allows for a good signal to noise ration
      for
      patterns coming from the sun. What the lack of rain in California
      tells us,
      then, about local biology and hydrology, is that it froms a stronger
      forcing
      on climate. By analogy, these chaos idiots like Daly are describing
      room
      temperature when what is really at issue is body temperature. And I
      can tell
      you that you all have a body temperature of 98.7 degrees F.

      BTW, Daly spends a lot of time talking about the cold Antarctica.
      Well, that
      is a bone head thing to discuss. Little does he understand that with
      warmer
      oceans come greater conductivity, which then becomes significant in
      the
      Southern Oceans where direction of current inducts against cirrus and
      causes
      cooling. The warm spots there like where B-22 melted have currents
      running in
      the other direction and it shows with local 5 degree Celcius
      warmings. It's
      all electrical, baby, and the fascists, in the name of oil, are
      throwing the
      baby out with the bath water, not realizing the biosphere's role, nore
      understanding the powerful proof of this in the very genes of
      creatures. It
      makes me ask, for instance, why don't plants have brains?Here is the
      moment with more:

      I have to say that because the warmer a conducter like our oceans,
      the better it conducts, that as the oceans have becoem warmer,
      particularly in the tropical PAC, that they induct against cirrus
      much faster. Put another way, when in the context of a warm even
      there is stong positive SOI you will see such huge impedance values
      that the cirrus are electricuted before your eyes, and the heat loss
      is phenomenal. Any questions?
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