Solar Activity Report for 10/31/02
- Round two of the Happy Hour? It could well be on the way. A coronal
hole has rotated into an Earth-pointing position. While it is not as
large as the last one that caused some great aurora, it is a decent
sized one. We should be seeing the effects of it on or about November
4th. Sunspot region 162 has almost rotated over the western limb of
the solar disk, but its not leaving quietly. It fired off a massive
X-class flare today, which caused a strong(R-3) radio blackout.
There's no mention of any CME from the event headed our way. There
are several new sunspot regions visible this evening. Of the group,
region 175 looks like it may have some flare producing potential. On
the whole, October was a great month for aurora watching.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 134
SFI : 170
A index : 18
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 415.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa
IMF : 7.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts
reaching the R3 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 162 and 175
(N16E29) are both capable of producing an M-class event.
Geomagnetic actvity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 1-2
November. Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 3 November
due to a coronal hole passage.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
31-Oct-2002 1652Z X1.2
31-Oct-2002 0926Z M1.1