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Re: Amending April Forecast on Alberto I

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  • Pawnfart
    I would expand this question to why the East Coast hasn t seen much cane activity and why I predict there is little or zero chance of a cane landfalling on
    Message 1 of 702 , Jul 11, 2001
      I would expand this question to why the East
      Coast hasn't seen much 'cane activity and why I predict
      there is little or zero chance of a 'cane landfalling
      on the north east coast AND WHY WE HAD AN ALBERTO
      AND WHY WE CAN EXPECT OTHER STORMS LIKE IT--this is a
      related persistance observation. <br><br>As you may know,
      the Great Lakes are at lows that match the Dust Bowl
      era. Record rains in April, related to a small flaring
      event and the massive subsistance of the Mississippi
      (25 square miles of delta a year are now getting
      washed into the Gulf), may have raised levels in Lake
      Superior, but overall the Great Lakes to the east remain
      low even as waters from the more averaged Lake
      Superior spill toward them. Also understand that the
      greatest amount of hydro diversion activity in front of
      Niagra falls occurs in winter and at night, when
      tourists don't see the falls. This has occurred for years
      now, and I wonder what that does ultimately to sed
      rates flowing out to the North Atlantic. <br><br>The
      excess rainfall in England and France, with England
      experiencing more rain than in any time in recorded weather
      history confirms this theory. In my view the weather
      conditions are related. It may also be said that flaring
      events could have a role as well as Keeling Whorf moon
      depressurization on methane hydrates, which may ultimately be what
      the NAO is. Perhaps echoes from El Ninos or other
      conditions that change ocean condutivity and cirrus
      formation play roles. That is a big question. For an
      analogy, say I shout into a room, and I hear my call
      echoed back to me. Now, with the same room, but full of
      talking people, will there be an echo? <br><br>The
      persistance of the signal is very interesting respecting
      these SST anomalies, for that reason. Now, there is
      something we can say about Alberto and storms like her.
      That is, on the eastern side of the Atlantic gyre,
      there should be methanogen activity causing reduction
      of induction of the counter current at depths. This
      in turn should cause a net electrical vector
      stemming from the surface currents, or a net cirrus
      REDUCING lack of electrons or positive charge on the ocean
      surface. But if the Great Lake levels are LOW, that would
      mean that sedimentation and flow and therefore
      methanogen activity would be relatively lacking. Thus, the
      counter current at depths should induct a current that
      cancels or substantially reduces the surface induction,
      allowing for warmer SSTs or ocean warming. Interestingly,
      consistant with this, we had Alberto and its strange,
      curling path. Further, we have record rain in England,
      which is famous for low clouds or fog. And, here is the
      kicker, if you bounce around during the late 20s and
      early 30s, we had several mid Atlantic
      storms!<br><br>Given the flaring event this spring and the low levels
      of the Great Lakes, I continue to predict another
      Alberto or Albertos. Last year, Alberto took up all of
      August, and so I wouldn't be surprised if this develops,
      but I would expect development in about 20 days or
      so.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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