Solar Activity Report for 10/22/02
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Yep, still in effect, although it hasn't done a bloody thing so far.
That could change fairly soon, though. The coronal hole I mentioned
in my last report in now in an Earth-pointing position. Judging from
the size and position, we could get a pretty good blast from it. The
effects should arrive here on or about the 25th. Elevated geomagnetic
conditions are possible on Wednesday from the barrage of M-class
flares that happened on 10/20. If there were any CME's kicked off,
they should be arriving just about any time now. At this moment, the
solar wind density is increasing, which may be a sign that things are
beginning to happen. Sunspot region 162 looks like it has the
potential to generate more flares, and bears watching as it approaches
an Earth-pointing position.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 132
SFI : 169
A index : 10
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 428.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa
IMF : 5.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 162 has
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day one due to the M1/Type II event
on 20 October.
Recent significant solar flare actvity :
22-Oct-2002 1535Z M1.0
- SOI went POSITIVE 8 w/ the lull and, of course, w/ the earth directed
CME is should flip yet again!
On another bb a Minnesotan poster wrote, complaining of 8 inches of
"Back in 1908 we had to wait until Jan 1 to get our first inch of
I wrote back:
From this link:
"In 1905, an irrigation canal diverting Colorado River water to
California farmland broke and flooded an ancient basin for two years.
The basin now contains a 35 mile long, 15 mile wide lake, named the
Salton Sea. "
Interesting related site:
Now examine the 1908 tropical storm season for the Atlantic/GOM:
As a note there are no E. Pac TS records til the 50s and that is
where the Colorado drains eventually via the GOC and SOC.
Note GOM free of TS except # 5 but that is what I call an Alberto
storm since it dies before shore. It indicates a very Gaia poor GOM.
I suspect what happens is the SOC/GOC is so Gaia poor from the
creation of the Salton Sea, especially after a couple of years for
the microbrial habitat to be disrupted, that fair weather voltages
hit that whole region and this in turn causes relatively poor
hydrology to the Rio and Mississippi.
W/ Doran wave activity very poor as a result, there is no source of
EMF during the winter for snow storms in Minnesota. Fair weather
voltages for both Gulfs probably put a large HP area over the US and
made it difficult for the Alberta Clippers to come down.
In contrast, hydrology is very strong right now in the GOM post Izzy
A Texan then wrote:
"I don't understand then why North Texas had this unusually cool and
damp summer this year. "
It was related to the Colorado delta being Gaia poor, and the GOM
being Gaia rich, and Texas stuck in between. The hydrology seemed to
expand in activity from the Black Algae area near the W. Keys and the
Mississippi delta toward Texas then to the Carolinas . . . Doran
waves tended to move west from the GOM which was primarily and
relatively speaking with a negative charge and the GOC w/ a positive
one. Ambiant winds reacted to the way that cirrus was modulated, and
the result was what you got. Further, there was good flaring CME this
summer and that gave largely a negative SOI, which tends to have an
EMF signature of its own. But that signature too is trumped by Gaia
Which brings to mind what is of greater interest, the GOC and the W.
Pac, which was and continues to be in very poor Gaia health, despite
flaring and CME that kept the SOI largely negative.
My models are crude in the sense that the fractal data I have is
nothing compared to what the traditional meteorologists use in
determining weather. They have WAY more data and information. Think
of it this way. If I tell you I can predict that you will have moist
conditions in your front yard in the morning 10 years you will think
that it is fiction. But if I plant a tree and in 10 years it grows,
you will have morning dew, more likely then not. Looking at it in a
slightly different way, from an abstract mathematical standpoint,
chaotic functions don't have dampening variables. And again, by
simple analogy, if you are talking about the climate of your own
body, I can predict it--98.7 degrees F. Doesn't matter what you ate
for breakfast or if you took a good dump at lunch or your room is hot
or you haven't been laid in week. All those variables are
meaningless, because over huge timescales your body has evolved
feedback loops to modulate, to dampen the chaotic, random stimuli you
This Texan doesn't like me to much, and wrote further:
"In many cases these life forms have remained at a primitive level
simply because there have been no environmental reasons(or
opportunities) for further development. This is something you might
understand better if you read a bit more about evolution ..."
Now you combine ignorance with a feces head personality. Speaking of
the subject--dino feces is a good topic. If an area had just plants,
and chaotic stimulas to a region eg CME and flaring and orbital and
even hydrology, siesmic changes occurred, and cirrus were not able to
be enhanced by the near shore biosphere, the greenery in a region
might dry up and then be susceptible to fire. But if greenery were
consumed by a herbavore and deposited nicely within the range of the
hydrology, when those chaotic features of weather/climate finally
smiled on a local hydrology, there would be plenty of feces to flow
into the near shore oceans. Selective pressures? You bet.
Do you follow? No. Why not? Culture, perhaps. It certainly isn't a
scientific eduction you have alone. Go kiss your SUV.
--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
> ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
> Yep, still in effect, although it hasn't done a bloody thing so
> That could change fairly soon, though. The coronal hole I mentioned
> in my last report in now in an Earth-pointing position. Judging
> the size and position, we could get a pretty good blast from it.
> effects should arrive here on or about the 25th. Elevated
> conditions are possible on Wednesday from the barrage of M-class
> flares that happened on 10/20. If there were any CME's kicked off,
> they should be arriving just about any time now. At this moment, the
> solar wind density is increasing, which may be a sign that things
> beginning to happen. Sunspot region 162 looks like it has the
> potential to generate more flares, and bears watching as it
> an Earth-pointing position.
> The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
> NOAA sunspot number : 132
> SFI : 169
> A index : 10
> K index : 2
> Solar wind speed : 428.2 km/sec
> Solar wind density : 6.7 protons/cc
> Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa
> IMF : 5.9 nT
> IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT North
> Conditions for the last 24 hours :
> Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
> reaching the R1 level occurred.
> Forecast for the next 24 hours :
> Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
> blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
> Solar activity forecast :
> Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 162 has
> M-class potential.
> Geomagnetic activity forecast :
> The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
> active conditions are possible on day one due to the M1/Type II
> on 20 October.
> Recent significant solar flare actvity :
> 22-Oct-2002 1535Z M1.0