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Solar Activity Report for 10/22/02

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Yep, still in effect, although it hasn t done a bloody thing so far. That could change fairly soon, though. The coronal hole I
    Message 1 of 2 , Oct 22, 2002
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Yep, still in effect, although it hasn't done a bloody thing so far.
      That could change fairly soon, though. The coronal hole I mentioned
      in my last report in now in an Earth-pointing position. Judging from
      the size and position, we could get a pretty good blast from it. The
      effects should arrive here on or about the 25th. Elevated geomagnetic
      conditions are possible on Wednesday from the barrage of M-class
      flares that happened on 10/20. If there were any CME's kicked off,
      they should be arriving just about any time now. At this moment, the
      solar wind density is increasing, which may be a sign that things are
      beginning to happen. Sunspot region 162 looks like it has the
      potential to generate more flares, and bears watching as it approaches
      an Earth-pointing position.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 132
      SFI : 169
      A index : 10
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 428.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa

      IMF : 5.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 162 has
      M-class potential.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
      active conditions are possible on day one due to the M1/Type II event
      on 20 October.

      Recent significant solar flare actvity :
      22-Oct-2002 1535Z M1.0
    • Mike Doran
      SOI went POSITIVE 8 w/ the lull and, of course, w/ the earth directed CME is should flip yet again! On another bb a Minnesotan poster wrote, complaining of 8
      Message 2 of 2 , Oct 22, 2002
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        SOI went POSITIVE 8 w/ the lull and, of course, w/ the earth directed
        CME is should flip yet again!

        On another bb a Minnesotan poster wrote, complaining of 8 inches of
        snow:

        "Back in 1908 we had to wait until Jan 1 to get our first inch of
        snow. "

        I wrote back:

        http://www.udel.edu/inst/problems/colorado/

        From this link:

        "In 1905, an irrigation canal diverting Colorado River water to
        California farmland broke and flooded an ancient basin for two years.
        The basin now contains a 35 mile long, 15 mile wide lake, named the
        Salton Sea. "

        Interesting related site:

        http://www.sci.sdsu.edu/salton/SaltonBasinHomePage.html

        Now examine the 1908 tropical storm season for the Atlantic/GOM:

        http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1908/

        As a note there are no E. Pac TS records til the 50s and that is
        where the Colorado drains eventually via the GOC and SOC.

        Note GOM free of TS except # 5 but that is what I call an Alberto
        storm since it dies before shore. It indicates a very Gaia poor GOM.

        I suspect what happens is the SOC/GOC is so Gaia poor from the
        creation of the Salton Sea, especially after a couple of years for
        the microbrial habitat to be disrupted, that fair weather voltages
        hit that whole region and this in turn causes relatively poor
        hydrology to the Rio and Mississippi.

        W/ Doran wave activity very poor as a result, there is no source of
        EMF during the winter for snow storms in Minnesota. Fair weather
        voltages for both Gulfs probably put a large HP area over the US and
        made it difficult for the Alberta Clippers to come down.

        In contrast, hydrology is very strong right now in the GOM post Izzy
        and Lili.



        A Texan then wrote:

        "I don't understand then why North Texas had this unusually cool and
        damp summer this year. "

        It was related to the Colorado delta being Gaia poor, and the GOM
        being Gaia rich, and Texas stuck in between. The hydrology seemed to
        expand in activity from the Black Algae area near the W. Keys and the
        Mississippi delta toward Texas then to the Carolinas . . . Doran
        waves tended to move west from the GOM which was primarily and
        relatively speaking with a negative charge and the GOC w/ a positive
        one. Ambiant winds reacted to the way that cirrus was modulated, and
        the result was what you got. Further, there was good flaring CME this
        summer and that gave largely a negative SOI, which tends to have an
        EMF signature of its own. But that signature too is trumped by Gaia
        modulation.

        Which brings to mind what is of greater interest, the GOC and the W.
        Pac, which was and continues to be in very poor Gaia health, despite
        flaring and CME that kept the SOI largely negative.

        My models are crude in the sense that the fractal data I have is
        nothing compared to what the traditional meteorologists use in
        determining weather. They have WAY more data and information. Think
        of it this way. If I tell you I can predict that you will have moist
        conditions in your front yard in the morning 10 years you will think
        that it is fiction. But if I plant a tree and in 10 years it grows,
        you will have morning dew, more likely then not. Looking at it in a
        slightly different way, from an abstract mathematical standpoint,
        chaotic functions don't have dampening variables. And again, by
        simple analogy, if you are talking about the climate of your own
        body, I can predict it--98.7 degrees F. Doesn't matter what you ate
        for breakfast or if you took a good dump at lunch or your room is hot
        or you haven't been laid in week. All those variables are
        meaningless, because over huge timescales your body has evolved
        feedback loops to modulate, to dampen the chaotic, random stimuli you
        receive.


        This Texan doesn't like me to much, and wrote further:

        "In many cases these life forms have remained at a primitive level
        simply because there have been no environmental reasons(or
        opportunities) for further development. This is something you might
        understand better if you read a bit more about evolution ..."

        I responded:

        Now you combine ignorance with a feces head personality. Speaking of
        the subject--dino feces is a good topic. If an area had just plants,
        and chaotic stimulas to a region eg CME and flaring and orbital and
        even hydrology, siesmic changes occurred, and cirrus were not able to
        be enhanced by the near shore biosphere, the greenery in a region
        might dry up and then be susceptible to fire. But if greenery were
        consumed by a herbavore and deposited nicely within the range of the
        hydrology, when those chaotic features of weather/climate finally
        smiled on a local hydrology, there would be plenty of feces to flow
        into the near shore oceans. Selective pressures? You bet.

        Do you follow? No. Why not? Culture, perhaps. It certainly isn't a
        scientific eduction you have alone. Go kiss your SUV.


        --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
        > ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
        >
        > Yep, still in effect, although it hasn't done a bloody thing so
        far.
        > That could change fairly soon, though. The coronal hole I mentioned
        > in my last report in now in an Earth-pointing position. Judging
        from
        > the size and position, we could get a pretty good blast from it.
        The
        > effects should arrive here on or about the 25th. Elevated
        geomagnetic
        > conditions are possible on Wednesday from the barrage of M-class
        > flares that happened on 10/20. If there were any CME's kicked off,
        > they should be arriving just about any time now. At this moment, the
        > solar wind density is increasing, which may be a sign that things
        are
        > beginning to happen. Sunspot region 162 looks like it has the
        > potential to generate more flares, and bears watching as it
        approaches
        > an Earth-pointing position.
        >
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
        >
        > NOAA sunspot number : 132
        > SFI : 169
        > A index : 10
        > K index : 2
        >
        > Solar wind speed : 428.2 km/sec
        > Solar wind density : 6.7 protons/cc
        > Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa
        >
        > IMF : 5.9 nT
        > IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT North
        >
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
        > reaching the R1 level occurred.
        >
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
        > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
        >
        > Solar activity forecast :
        > Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 162 has
        > M-class potential.
        >
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
        > active conditions are possible on day one due to the M1/Type II
        event
        > on 20 October.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare actvity :
        > 22-Oct-2002 1535Z M1.0
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