Solar Activity Report for 10/20/02
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The solar wind speed remains high tonight, still hovering around the
600 km/sec mark. While no geomagnetic activity has resulted from the
elevated solar wind speeds as of yet, it is still possible, so the
aurora watch remains in effect. After several days of no significant
flares, Sunday made up for lost time by registering 4 M-class events.
Two came from sunspot region 160, and two came from sunspot region
162. 162 is new on the scene, having recently rotated into view. It
is impressive looking, spanning 10 Earth diameters. Stay tuned for
information about possible CME's from these 4 flares as SOHO satellite
data becomes available tomorrow. Sunspot region 160 is pretty close
to an Earth-pointing position. There is a large coronal hole that has
rotated into view, and should be in an Earth-pointing position soon.
Look for some effects from that late in the week.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 179
SFI : 180
A index : 10
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 602.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa
IMF : 5.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.3 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar aciivity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 160 and
Region 162 have M-class potential.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. There is a
chance of isolated active to minor storm conditions on day two and day
three due to effects from the M-class activity mentioned above.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
20-Oct-2002 1428Z M1.8
20-Oct-2002 0514Z M1.2
20-Oct-2002 0339Z M1.5
20-Oct-2002 0045Z M1.8