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Re: Extreme weather, MHs, electrical asp

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  • Pawnfart
    Dr. Gray acknowleges recent low landfall incidence, but finds it is luck and also finds the recent activity as heavy, but also finds it related to an
    Message 1 of 702 , Feb 1, 2001
      Dr. Gray acknowleges recent low landfall
      incidence, but finds it is "luck" and also finds the recent
      activity as heavy, but also finds it related to an
      increased thermohaline. This may explain salinity pulses
      varying phase change energies, but not the mechanism
      involved in creating the stearing or shearing winds. This
      is chicken egg stuff. He sees the correlation
      between rainfall in Africa and cane activity, but not the
      WHY. Why? Rainfall increases sed, detrimus, and water
      flows and supports more methanogen/methane hydrate
      activity. The thermohaline is more active because the
      Mississippi and Rio are beyond dam/levy construction and have
      reached a mature water and sediment flow equillibrium.
      Damming in one area of the Gulf may create such a
      disruption in methanogen habitat, that ion induced high
      pressures move everything in one direction, even if the
      habitat is normal in another part of the Gulf. Indeed,
      ditrimus flow has increased dramatically lately such that
      there is ecological concern over the deltas. Further, a
      biological equillibrium, or evolution has occurred, in my
      view, in the Gulf of California following the
      construction of the Hoover and the restricted flow down the
      Colorado, SST have increased as the methanogens have
      evolved to survive in methane hydrate fields with low sed
      and fresh water flow rates--they adjust locally with
      new inhibitors to varying local salinity and detrimis
      levels. The monsoons are responsible for the high
      pressure that has moved most recent cane activity away
      from land falling. <br><br><br>Dr. Gray also forecasts
      a weak El Nino. However, we have a strong La Nina
      right now, as I predicted on the other bbs last summer.
      This is, again, related to the fact we had two state
      sized bergs in the Southern Oceans last year, that have
      altered dilution of the South Pacific, and hence the
      methanogen dynamic, that fundimentally is the feedback that
      Dr. White at Scripps describes relating to salinity
      pulses.<br><br>Not surprisingly, insurance companies are spreading a
      myth that CO2 directly increases hurricane activity of
      landfalling storms in Florida. This link is to a NPR
      RealAudio story on hurricane insurance in Florida:
      <br><br><a href=http://www.npr.org/ramfiles/atc/20000831.atc.07.rmm target=new>http://www.npr.org/ramfiles/atc/20000831.atc.07.rmm</a> <br><br>This claim is not necessarily accurate
      and as it gets repeated quite a bit, it gets respect
      that is incredibly harmful in the debate over climate
      change and human influences. That said, I myself
      disagree with Dr. Gray that higher CO2 has no influence on
      the hurricane activity. <br><br>When methane hydrates
      melt the water in the area where this occurs becomes
      less saline and less dense and will have a tendency to
      rise at the same time that phase change energies are
      released. Electrical fields over the oceans become more
      ionized and less insolated, attracting air. Insolated air
      has ions that are like charged, and hence repell each
      other, creating low pressures. This rising water is more
      cold than the more salty water above it. Cold water
      upsets the ability of hurricanes to form. Hence, you
      don't have high pressure aloft or warm SSTs for
      hurricanes to form well.<br><br>The methane hydrates can
      melt if not weighed down by sediment, since they float
      up, so sedimentation changes from shore tide
      movements would also impact methane hydrate formation.
      Further, the biology of the methanogens is altered by the
      amount of demitris river changes would cause.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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