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Solar Activity Report for 10/11/02

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  • David
    The first nine days of October were pretty active from a geomagnetic standpoint. Geomagnetic storms raged on and off through the period, at times reaching the
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 11, 2002
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      The first nine days of October were pretty active from a geomagnetic
      standpoint. Geomagnetic storms raged on and off through the period,
      at times reaching the G-2(moderate) level. There were some strong
      M-class flares, although none of them shot off any significant CME's
      our way. Rather, coronal holes were the main source of the activity,
      and a persistent south-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field helped
      ensure that there were several very impressive aurora displays.
      Aurora were seen and photographed as far south as North Carolina and
      Arizona. The activity has quieted down now, and there isn't much
      happening right at the moment. There are, however, several sunspot
      groups rotating into view, at least one of which, that being sunspot
      region 149, has the potential of producing an M-class flare. Sunspot
      region 139, however looks to be the major player right now. Although
      it has been quiet for a couple of days now, it still has definite
      potential for an M-class flare, and a major flare isn't completely out
      of the question.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 178
      SFI : 179
      A index : 8
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 346.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa

      IMF : 5.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 139 and 149
      are both potential sources of isolated moderate flare activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to
      unsettled.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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