Solar Activity Report for 10/11/02
- The first nine days of October were pretty active from a geomagnetic
standpoint. Geomagnetic storms raged on and off through the period,
at times reaching the G-2(moderate) level. There were some strong
M-class flares, although none of them shot off any significant CME's
our way. Rather, coronal holes were the main source of the activity,
and a persistent south-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field helped
ensure that there were several very impressive aurora displays.
Aurora were seen and photographed as far south as North Carolina and
Arizona. The activity has quieted down now, and there isn't much
happening right at the moment. There are, however, several sunspot
groups rotating into view, at least one of which, that being sunspot
region 149, has the potential of producing an M-class flare. Sunspot
region 139, however looks to be the major player right now. Although
it has been quiet for a couple of days now, it still has definite
potential for an M-class flare, and a major flare isn't completely out
of the question.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 178
SFI : 179
A index : 8
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 346.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
IMF : 5.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 139 and 149
are both potential sources of isolated moderate flare activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to
Recent significant solar flare activity :