Solar Activity Report for 10/5/02
- After four straight days of geomagnetic storms and aurora, the Earth's
magnetic field has settled down a bit, although the respite may be
only temporary. See this link for bunches of aurora pictures from all
over Europe, Canada, and the northern US, as well as pics from
locations as far south as Arizona and North Carolina :
Sunspot regions 137 and 139 have combined to unnleash a string of
M-class flares over the last 48 hours, including a very respectable
M-5 event. There weren't any strong CME's associated with the flares,
but there were a couple of weak ones that were kicked off on Oct 3 and
4. We could see some elevated geomagnetic activity Sunday or Monday.
Sunspot regions 137 and 139 are likely to continue producing flares,
and there's at least a small chance of a major flare. A coronal hole
has rotated into an Earth-pointing position, and will likely be
sending high-speed solar wind gusts our way. Arrival will
probably be Monday or Tuesday.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 155
SFI : 155
A index : 21
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 411.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 11.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 3.3 nPa
IMF : 4.6 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.6 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R2
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels.
M-class activity is likely from Regions 137 and 139, and there's a
small chance for another major flare from Region 139.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to minor
storm levels. Transient effects from the rather weak CMEs on 3 and 4
Oct may enhance the disturbed periods on days one and two. A large,
recurrent southern coronal hole will move into geoeffective position
late on day two through day three.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
05-Oct-2002 2100Z M5.9
05-Oct-2002 1046Z M1.2
04-Oct-2002 2243Z M2.7
04-Oct-2002 1711Z M1.2
04-Oct-2002 1255Z M1.2
04-Oct-2002 1105Z M3.5
04-Oct-2002 0538Z M4.0
04-Oct-2002 0043Z M1.0