Solar Acticity Report for 8/30/02
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The coronal hole solar wind stream I mentioned in my last report made
its arrival early Monday morning EDT. The event triggered a G-2 class
geomagnetic storm, and some impressive aurora were produced. See this
link for a beautiful aurora display that was photographed over North
Dakota : http://www.prairiejournal.com/2002northernlights/093002.htm .
More aurora are possible this evening, and skywatchers in the higher
latitudes should keep an eye out to the north around local midnight.
On the flare front, sunspot region 134 has been active recently,
firing off 4 M-class flares in the last 4 days, the strongest being a
nice M2.8 eruption. More flares are possible from this region.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 94
SFI : 140
A index : 24
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 386.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 8.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.7 nPa
IMF : 22.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.7 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 134 remains
capable of producing M-class events.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to
unsettled with isolated active conditions possible on 01 October.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
30-Sep-2002 0150Z M2.1
29-Sep-2002 0639Z M2.6
- Ozone hole link and comments
Warmer oceans and a double peak flaring and CME--means that the
circumpolar current is both conductive and taking in large quantities of
protons. HOWEVER, the circumpolar is not all that is going on there in
Antarctica--there is the countercurrent or eddy near the boots of both S.
America and Antarctica--interestingly where both b-21 and b-22 broke off
and very warm anomalies, up to 5 degrees C., have been recorded. There,
induction patterns enhance cirrus--and so you really have very strong
ability for local Doran waves to be produced. My view is this is what is
splitting the ozone layer. Ozone, as you all know, is an ion in the
ionosphere, and is inherently electrical.
> Ozone, as you all know, is an ion in the ionosphere, and isinherently electrical.<
If I remember correctly, ozone is O3, whereas normal molecular oxygen
is O2. I may be forgetting my high school chemistry, but I though
molecules by nature had to be electrically neutral.