Solar Activity Report for 9/28/02
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Well, no sooner than I say that solar activity is quiet and boring
that two M-class flares are fired off in rapid succession. That
happened on Friday the 27th, with sunspot region 134 being the
culprit. This sunspot looks like it could possibly generate more
flares, and a major flare is not entirely out of the question. The
reason for the aurora watch, however, is not because of the flares,
but rather because of a coronal hole solar wind stream which is due to
arrive either Sunday or Monday. As always, exactly how the
magnetosphere will react is uncertain, but slywatchers should keep a
watch out for aurora Sunday and Monday nights.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 140
SFI : 149
A index : 5
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 303.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 8.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 13.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.5 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 134 has the
potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
Geonagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to
unsettled. Active conditions are possible for September 29 - 30 due to
potential effects from a coronal hole passage.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
27-Sep-2002 1942Z M1.4
27-Sep-2002 1312Z M1.8