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SOI positive, Isa, CME report

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  • Mike Doran
    SOI STILL (barely) POSITIVE!!!!!!!!!! http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/ Date Tahiti Darwin
    Message 1 of 2 , Sep 20, 2002
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      SOI STILL (barely) POSITIVE!!!!!!!!!!

      Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day

      20-Sep-2002 1016.41 1013.95 0.80 -12.76 -11.54
      Fundimentally, this storm is about Doran wave features and a CME
      event that occurred and is earth bound at this time. See

      These CME tend to be sorted by ocean conductivity, and that is how
      SSTs arranged in cold and warm patterns can sort them, because those
      SSTs impact conductivity. Put another way, cold surfaces on the
      oceans allow less electrical current to flow through them, and fair
      weather positive voltages can go into the ocean as well. This results
      in Doran wave features--and as you look at the Equatorial Pacific off
      the coast of Peru there are cold anomalies (El Nino 1,2) and then hot
      amomalies off the coast of Panama, then north of there cooler then
      hotter again south of south Mexico. That sets up our Texas storm.
      From an EMF standpoint we have cold anomalies near Florida and warm
      near Texas. This, IMHO, will define the path of Isa more than ambiant
      winds like troughs, as this storm via Doran waves begins to define
      nearby convection. This storm will go west of the Mississippi and I
      wouldn't be surprised to see the SSTs contrast line really define how
      it behaves.
      Westward movement is also indicated by the relative EMF conditions of
      the Gulf of California and the N. Pacific along the California coast.
      That is because this region is Gaia poor and relatively positively
      charged in the ionosphere. A hurricane is decidedly about a HUGE
      concentrations of electrons or negitive ions in an eye, which then
      cause Doran wave behavior and changes in cirrus clouds and the IR
      (infrared) behavior underneath them.
      Westward movement is also indicated by the biological conditions from
      the heavy rains Texas has received the past two months. That makes
      these waters with relatively more insulating hydrates and ion
      activity in the oceans that favor EMFs that feedback precipitation.
      As this is a low SOx period, expect the storm to stall and flood and
      not buzz saw.


      Yesterday someone provided me with the Florida Keys radar link on
      another bb. When I looked at it, I noted within the storm Isa, of
      course, the banding, but also an interesting feature that I am
      convinced is associated with the more EMF aspects of the storm. Over
      to the NE a line of heavy storms off the coast of the Carolinas was
      captured on the radar and a line could be draw from the eye wall to
      the storm, a finger like projection. This is a "shorting", for those
      familiar with electronics. What is happening is there is so much
      charge accumulation in a line that current begins to jump across the
      insulting air. This causes cirrus clouds to behave differently, move
      higher and be attracted to the ionosphere more radically. Infrared
      values underneath then change and favor convection. This is actually
      the kind of behavior that makes for Texas tornadoes, IMHO, over a
      more jet stream driven tornado, which is more about ions being
      displaced in EMF conditions that are extreme, which in turn causes
      extreme energies differences. Why is this relevant? This baby's
      headed toward Texas. Don't be surprised in what will essentially be a
      flooder and staller that the big winds come from associated
      tornadoes . .

      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
      > As I've stated before, you don't necessarily need a strong flare to
      > fire off a CME, and today's report contains a good example. There
      > a long duration C8-class flare produced by sunspot region 114 early
      > 9/17, and a CME was observed immediately afterward. While the CME
      > not squarely Eaeth-directed, there does appear to be at least a
      > halo component to it. It might brush against Earth's magentosphere
      > and trigger aurora. The 19th is projected to be the arrival day.
      > There are seven sunspot regions visible tonight. While none look
      > they will be generating a major flare for the time being, an M-class
      > flare is possible from sunspot region 105 or 119.
      > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
      > NOAA sunspot number : 225
      > SFI : 177
      > A index : 13
      > K index : 3
      > Solar wind speed : 490.3 km/sec
      > Solar wind density : 1.1 protons/cc
      > Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
      > IMF : 5.2 nT
      > IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT North
      > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
      > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      > Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio
      > reaching the R1 level are expected.
      > Solar activity forecast :
      > Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Best chance for an
      > isolated M-class flare is from developing Region 119 or Region 105
      > it approaches the west limb.
      > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      > The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly unsettled
      > levels with isolated active periods. Active to minor storm
      > are expected on the latter half of day one due to the C8 flare and
      > partial halo CME that occurred early on 17 Sep. Expect conditions to
      > return to unsettled levels as the expected storm subsides on day
      > Recent significant solar flare activity :
      > None
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