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Solar Activity Report for 9/16/02

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  • David
    September is a good month for aurora watching, and this one has been a good one. In fact, statistics show that both the time periods around the spring and
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 16, 2002
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      September is a good month for aurora watching, and this one has been a
      good one. In fact, statistics show that both the time periods around
      the spring and fall equinoxes are good times for aurora, although as
      yet nobody has been able to come up with a good reason why. At any
      rate, another round of aurora occurred on the 14th, to add to the 3
      episodes that have already happened this month. The Earth has exited
      the high speed solar wind stream that brought some of that activity
      on. Sunspot regions 105 and 114 remain possible sources for M-class
      flares, and there have been 2 low level M-class flares within the last
      48 hours.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 190
      SFI : 183
      A index : 6
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 462.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.1 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa

      IMF : 8.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. There is a
      chance for isolated active conditions on day three of the forecast
      period due to a possible weak shock passage from the M1/Sn flare
      mentioned in IA. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to
      remain moderate to high for days one and two of the forecast period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      16-Sep-2002 0310Z M1.3
      15-Sep-2002 1738Z M1.0
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