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Re: Solar Activity Report for 9/8/02

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  • pawnfart
    Thanks for the report. I see the G. Storm formed and that the SOI is neg w/ the flaring/CME. I always look for that proton number . . . as it gets into the
    Message 1 of 4 , Sep 9, 2002
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      Thanks for the report. I see the G. Storm formed and that the SOI is
      neg w/ the flaring/CME. I always look for that proton number . . .
      as it gets into the 400s . . .


      Kirk,

      Thanks for the that.




      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "b1blancer_29501" <b1blancer1@e...>
      wrote:
      > A CME kicked off by a C-class flare impacted Earth's megnetosphere
      on
      > Saturday, and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung sharply
      > southward. The result was a geomagnetic storm that peaked at the G-
      3
      > (strong) level. Aurora were spotted as far south as North Carolina,
      > as well as numerous locations across the northern US, Canada, and
      > Europe. See this link for some great aurora pictures :
      > http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_07sep02.html .
      > The geomagnetic storm has subsided, but there could be more action
      on
      > the way. A coronal hole is in an Earth-pointing position, and we
      > could see some high-speed solar wind gusts from it as early as
      > Tuesday. Moderate solar activity is expected to continue, with
      > sunspot region 105 being the most likely source of flares.
      >
      > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
      >
      > NOAA sunspot number : 221
      > SFI : 192
      > A index : 23
      > K index : 2
      >
      > Solar wind speed : 496.6 km/sec
      > Solar wind density : 2.3 protons/cc
      > Solar wind pressure : n/a
      >
      > IMF : 9.5 nT
      > IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT North
      >
      > Conditions for the last 24 hours : Space weather for the past 24
      hours
      > has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
      >
      > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
      >
      > Solar activity forecast :
      > Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 105 is the most
      > likely source of energetic flares.
      >
      > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Activity
      > levels may increase by the end of the three-day forecast period in
      > response to an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
      >
      > Recent significant solar flare activity :
      > 08-Sep-2002 0143Z M1.5
    • kirk
      Always look forward to your prognosticating and analysis. The science as taught in our universities is sadly lacking. Would be humorous if it wasn t so
      Message 2 of 4 , Sep 9, 2002
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        Always look forward to your prognosticating and analysis.
        The "science" as taught in our universities is sadly lacking.
        Would be humorous if it wasn't so serious.

        A weather anecdote, besides the Utah and Wisconsin tornados, summer before
        last I saw a lightning display on the mountains around my house, probably 20
        miles for the furthest, where the light didn't go out for about a minute.
        That is a lot of electricity. Like the flickering light from a welder,
        sometimes brighter but never a break.

        Truly amazing.
        Lightning this year was normal.

        Kirk


        -----Original Message-----
        From: pawnfart [mailto:mike@...]
        Sent: Monday, September 09, 2002 2:01 AM
        To: methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com
        Subject: [Methane Hydrate Club] Re: Solar Activity Report for 9/8/02


        Thanks for the report. I see the G. Storm formed and that the SOI is
        neg w/ the flaring/CME. I always look for that proton number . . .
        as it gets into the 400s . . .


        Kirk,

        Thanks for the that.




        --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "b1blancer_29501" <b1blancer1@e...>
        wrote:
        > A CME kicked off by a C-class flare impacted Earth's megnetosphere
        on
        > Saturday, and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung sharply
        > southward. The result was a geomagnetic storm that peaked at the G-
        3
        > (strong) level. Aurora were spotted as far south as North Carolina,
        > as well as numerous locations across the northern US, Canada, and
        > Europe. See this link for some great aurora pictures :
        > http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_07sep02.html .
        > The geomagnetic storm has subsided, but there could be more action
        on
        > the way. A coronal hole is in an Earth-pointing position, and we
        > could see some high-speed solar wind gusts from it as early as
        > Tuesday. Moderate solar activity is expected to continue, with
        > sunspot region 105 being the most likely source of flares.
        >
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
        >
        > NOAA sunspot number : 221
        > SFI : 192
        > A index : 23
        > K index : 2
        >
        > Solar wind speed : 496.6 km/sec
        > Solar wind density : 2.3 protons/cc
        > Solar wind pressure : n/a
        >
        > IMF : 9.5 nT
        > IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT North
        >
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours : Space weather for the past 24
        hours
        > has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
        >
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
        > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
        >
        > Solar activity forecast :
        > Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 105 is the most
        > likely source of energetic flares.
        >
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Activity
        > levels may increase by the end of the three-day forecast period in
        > response to an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :
        > 08-Sep-2002 0143Z M1.5



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      • mike
        What is Lindzen smoking? How come the pack a day habit? ... his wristwatch, leaned back and smiled. It is a mistake, he said, to suppose that the public
        Message 3 of 4 , Sep 9, 2002
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          What is Lindzen smoking? How come the pack a day habit?

          From Asimov's "The Gods Themselves":

          ---"Let me give you a lesson practical politics." Senator Burth looked at
          his wristwatch, leaned back and smiled. "It is a mistake," he said, "to
          suppose that the public wants he environment protected or their lives
          saved and that they will be grateful to any idealist who will fight for
          such ends. What the public wants is their own individual comfort.
          "Now then, young man, don't ask me ot stop the Pumping. The economy and
          comfort of the entire planet depend on it. Tell me, instead, how to to
          keep the Pumping from exploding the sun."
          Lamont said, "There is no way, Senator. We are dealing with something
          here that is so basic, we can't play with it. We must stop it."
          "We must."
          "In that case, you will need hard and fast proof that you are right."
          "The best proof," Lamont said stiffly, "is to have the Sun explode."---

          You know, I listen to Nirvana's Kurt Corbain's music knowing frankly he
          was a heroin addict with suicidal leanings. And if you caught the context
          of my previous comments about Lindzen's smoking addiction, it was from
          the standpoint of biology, that now quatum mechanics are starting to be
          introduced to biological sciences--in that some like Joejohn McFadden are
          postulating, with systems help (meaning many scientists together on the
          same project), that instead of genetic processes being entirely random
          with selection thereafter are part of a deeper level of functioning by
          DNA/RNA--on a quantum level of selection with the replicating material
          sensing quantum states--and how that may have an oxydized chemistry
          context.

          Anyway, from there, Gaia would mean that sensing oxydized chemistry could
          select toward mutation! Put another way, cancer IS a Gaia response on a
          lower order of an evolutionary past. BUT, humans have adapted to fit in
          conditions of fire--of oxydized states. AND, they did so over a
          significant period of time that their lung tissues have evolved duplicity-
          -one must have four, five, six mutations of oncogenes to get lung cancer.
          BUT, by product of humans living longer AND smoking, we have cancer
          expressed . . .

          What I ponder over our University's dogma is more the history of human
          nature. Same sort of questions, though--just that I am projecting on
          Lindzen.

          Yet, my comments about Lindzen smoking is project well because even
          though he calls his paper 'iris' he seems to lack biological
          sensibilities, which is apparent in his choice of smoking. For anyone
          with any biology/health science training, smoking is akin to being
          mentally retarded . . .

          As far as EMFs and Lindzen are concerned, EMFs is some heavy $hit. I
          don't think anyone should be blasted for missing EMFs and cirrus cloud
          behavior--even if clouds are your business.

          Fractal math.

          Like Lindzen's 2 degree by 2 degree squares, there is now data available
          by tools like sattelites that essentially are fractal fields. Something
          that size of measure is enough, for instance, to pick up direction of
          trade currents and EMF induction, impedance values in the tropical W.
          Pac.--to explain what the 'iris' really is and what it means to Doran
          waves--even though the subatomic actions are not observed . . .

          What should be noticed about Fay is that it, electrically, can be traced
          all the way back to when the SOI went positive, even for a day, and the
          wave off Africa that was to become Dolly. Interestingly, with Fay we got
          deltas and RAIN for the first time in six months. It rained in S. Cal
          too, which is amazing considering how dry it was there. The Doran wave
          implications of such a strong concentration of EMF from Fay gave us rain.

          Meanwhile, despite the fact that often Fay was "open", it persisted due,
          IMHO, to the N-S nature of the El Nino 1,2, SW Panama shoreline, W.
          Carribean to GOM wave of warm to cold anomalies that would support EMF
          Doran wave activity, where there was a very strong and dry strip of
          protons to ground just south of Fay . . .

          Which brings me back to NO El Nino (no Christain reference intended).
          These kind of Doran wave conditions dampen climate and cause there to be
          no chaotic extremes that would be expected with chaotic inputs and
          chaotic functions, fractal or not, such as what seems to occur w/ an El
          Nino. Explosions and chaos--can't exist together with a living
          earth . . . it is not chaos was, chaos is, as those using weather models
          that are worthless after 3 days would preach, but it is biological
          modulation was, and is, so take care of that living organism we live on.

          Here is a great link I am using for strike data:

          http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag87.html

          That link shows the continued similar pattern of the monsoons, the
          remnants of the Texas E. GOM storm, and the G storm--all lined up with
          the most intense EMF activity all at about the same lattitude and dry
          strips--read fair weather positive voltage to ground--in between.
          A tropical storm is a capacitive in nature. Capaciters have parts of them
          that are NOT conductive and parts that are. This allows alternating
          currents to flow through them and energies are exchanged, which in turn
          changes cloud behavior of cirrus and so forth. If a tropical storm
          landfalls, there are no longer current paths for these alternating
          currents and they then go to the least resistive path--away from the
          storms--to other places in the world. The parts that are of interest, of
          course, are the oceans and the ionosphere. If a storm runs out of ocean,
          the charges that have accumulated as a part of a former dynamic are now
          in the ionosphere free to move . . . The strike data allows us to see
          shorts across these capacitors--and see the limitations of them. It is
          likewise a fractal pattern . . .

          Part of the problem is that I am writing for people who may have read my
          stuff before and are following. These are large assumptions, I know. Then
          there are the thoughts I have that I haven't conveyed that are required
          before making the point made, or worse there are the thoughts conveyed
          when you sort of know the answer but can't describe how you got there.

          What I have said about the Lindzen 'iris' paper and other papers, of
          course, is that there is a connection between cloud behavior, between
          electrical activity and cirrus clouds, and what that then means to
          infrared absorbtion by clouds and what sea surface temperatures, or SSTs,
          then do. It is my devoloping view that waves of areas that are EMF
          favorable then not result in SSTs expressing this occurrance.

          Part of the problem is the fractal math requirement to describe what we
          are talking about and how the size of the measured areas matter. Either
          for simplicity or complexities sake. In this case, what pattern I am
          describing, in the best mathematical way possible based on the real time
          data, is the strike and cloud data in references to SSTs--because there
          is a sort of dependant relationship here. Cold SSTs are NOT
          conductive!!!! Let me say again. COLD SSTS ARE NOT CONDUCTIVE. WARM ARE!
          So EMF activity, specially the wave activity I have been discussing, is
          going to be particularly implicated by warm ocean surfaces. Even over
          larger areas this description brings meaningful discussion of EMFs,
          clouds, and climate/weather patterns like ENSO.

          ++++++

          The planetary link you provided was very interesting for me because I was
          thinking about the lack of dust on planets and the EMF reasons why that
          could be true. As you know, during glacial epochs there is more dust--
          which to me indicates less effective Gaia feedbacks, that Gaia therefore
          is among those rare kinds of feedbacks that are positive.


          -----Original Message-----
          From: "kirk" <kirk@...>
          To: <methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com>
          Date: Mon, 9 Sep 2002 10:58:52 -0600
          Subject: RE: [Methane Hydrate Club] Re: Solar Activity Report for 9/8/02

          > Always look forward to your prognosticating and analysis.
          > The "science" as taught in our universities is sadly lacking.
          > Would be humorous if it wasn't so serious.
          >
          > A weather anecdote, besides the Utah and Wisconsin tornados, summer
          > before
          > last I saw a lightning display on the mountains around my house,
          > probably 20
          > miles for the furthest, where the light didn't go out for about a
          > minute.
          > That is a lot of electricity. Like the flickering light from a welder,
          > sometimes brighter but never a break.
          >
          > Truly amazing.
          > Lightning this year was normal.
          >
          > Kirk
          >
          >
          > -----Original Message-----
          > From: pawnfart [mailto:mike@...]
          > Sent: Monday, September 09, 2002 2:01 AM
          > To: methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com
          > Subject: [Methane Hydrate Club] Re: Solar Activity Report for 9/8/02
          >
          >
          > Thanks for the report. I see the G. Storm formed and that the SOI is
          > neg w/ the flaring/CME. I always look for that proton number . . .
          > as it gets into the 400s . . .
          >
          >
          > Kirk,
          >
          > Thanks for the that.
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "b1blancer_29501" <b1blancer1@e...>
          > wrote:
          > > A CME kicked off by a C-class flare impacted Earth's megnetosphere
          > on
          > > Saturday, and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung sharply
          > > southward. The result was a geomagnetic storm that peaked at the G-
          > 3
          > > (strong) level. Aurora were spotted as far south as North Carolina,
          > > as well as numerous locations across the northern US, Canada, and
          > > Europe. See this link for some great aurora pictures :
          > > http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_07sep02.html .
          > > The geomagnetic storm has subsided, but there could be more action
          > on
          > > the way. A coronal hole is in an Earth-pointing position, and we
          > > could see some high-speed solar wind gusts from it as early as
          > > Tuesday. Moderate solar activity is expected to continue, with
          > > sunspot region 105 being the most likely source of flares.
          > >
          > > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
          > >
          > > NOAA sunspot number : 221
          > > SFI : 192
          > > A index : 23
          > > K index : 2
          > >
          > > Solar wind speed : 496.6 km/sec
          > > Solar wind density : 2.3 protons/cc
          > > Solar wind pressure : n/a
          > >
          > > IMF : 9.5 nT
          > > IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT North
          > >
          > > Conditions for the last 24 hours : Space weather for the past 24
          > hours
          > > has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
          > >
          > > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
          > > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
          > > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
          > >
          > > Solar activity forecast :
          > > Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 105 is the most
          > > likely source of energetic flares.
          > >
          > > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
          > > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Activity
          > > levels may increase by the end of the three-day forecast period in
          > > response to an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
          > >
          > > Recent significant solar flare activity :
          > > 08-Sep-2002 0143Z M1.5
          >
          >
          >
          > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
          > methanehydrateclub-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
          >
          >
          >
          > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
          > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
          >
          >
          >
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