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Solar Activity Report for 9/8/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    A CME kicked off by a C-class flare impacted Earth s megnetosphere on Saturday, and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung sharply southward. The result was
    Message 1 of 4 , Sep 8, 2002
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      A CME kicked off by a C-class flare impacted Earth's megnetosphere on
      Saturday, and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung sharply
      southward. The result was a geomagnetic storm that peaked at the G-3
      (strong) level. Aurora were spotted as far south as North Carolina,
      as well as numerous locations across the northern US, Canada, and
      Europe. See this link for some great aurora pictures :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_07sep02.html .
      The geomagnetic storm has subsided, but there could be more action on
      the way. A coronal hole is in an Earth-pointing position, and we
      could see some high-speed solar wind gusts from it as early as
      Tuesday. Moderate solar activity is expected to continue, with
      sunspot region 105 being the most likely source of flares.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 221
      SFI : 192
      A index : 23
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 496.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : n/a

      IMF : 9.5 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours : Space weather for the past 24 hours
      has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 105 is the most
      likely source of energetic flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Activity
      levels may increase by the end of the three-day forecast period in
      response to an extension of the south polar coronal hole.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      08-Sep-2002 0143Z M1.5
    • pawnfart
      Thanks for the report. I see the G. Storm formed and that the SOI is neg w/ the flaring/CME. I always look for that proton number . . . as it gets into the
      Message 2 of 4 , Sep 9, 2002
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        Thanks for the report. I see the G. Storm formed and that the SOI is
        neg w/ the flaring/CME. I always look for that proton number . . .
        as it gets into the 400s . . .


        Kirk,

        Thanks for the that.




        --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "b1blancer_29501" <b1blancer1@e...>
        wrote:
        > A CME kicked off by a C-class flare impacted Earth's megnetosphere
        on
        > Saturday, and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung sharply
        > southward. The result was a geomagnetic storm that peaked at the G-
        3
        > (strong) level. Aurora were spotted as far south as North Carolina,
        > as well as numerous locations across the northern US, Canada, and
        > Europe. See this link for some great aurora pictures :
        > http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_07sep02.html .
        > The geomagnetic storm has subsided, but there could be more action
        on
        > the way. A coronal hole is in an Earth-pointing position, and we
        > could see some high-speed solar wind gusts from it as early as
        > Tuesday. Moderate solar activity is expected to continue, with
        > sunspot region 105 being the most likely source of flares.
        >
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
        >
        > NOAA sunspot number : 221
        > SFI : 192
        > A index : 23
        > K index : 2
        >
        > Solar wind speed : 496.6 km/sec
        > Solar wind density : 2.3 protons/cc
        > Solar wind pressure : n/a
        >
        > IMF : 9.5 nT
        > IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT North
        >
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours : Space weather for the past 24
        hours
        > has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
        >
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
        > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
        >
        > Solar activity forecast :
        > Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 105 is the most
        > likely source of energetic flares.
        >
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Activity
        > levels may increase by the end of the three-day forecast period in
        > response to an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :
        > 08-Sep-2002 0143Z M1.5
      • kirk
        Always look forward to your prognosticating and analysis. The science as taught in our universities is sadly lacking. Would be humorous if it wasn t so
        Message 3 of 4 , Sep 9, 2002
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          Always look forward to your prognosticating and analysis.
          The "science" as taught in our universities is sadly lacking.
          Would be humorous if it wasn't so serious.

          A weather anecdote, besides the Utah and Wisconsin tornados, summer before
          last I saw a lightning display on the mountains around my house, probably 20
          miles for the furthest, where the light didn't go out for about a minute.
          That is a lot of electricity. Like the flickering light from a welder,
          sometimes brighter but never a break.

          Truly amazing.
          Lightning this year was normal.

          Kirk


          -----Original Message-----
          From: pawnfart [mailto:mike@...]
          Sent: Monday, September 09, 2002 2:01 AM
          To: methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: [Methane Hydrate Club] Re: Solar Activity Report for 9/8/02


          Thanks for the report. I see the G. Storm formed and that the SOI is
          neg w/ the flaring/CME. I always look for that proton number . . .
          as it gets into the 400s . . .


          Kirk,

          Thanks for the that.




          --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "b1blancer_29501" <b1blancer1@e...>
          wrote:
          > A CME kicked off by a C-class flare impacted Earth's megnetosphere
          on
          > Saturday, and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung sharply
          > southward. The result was a geomagnetic storm that peaked at the G-
          3
          > (strong) level. Aurora were spotted as far south as North Carolina,
          > as well as numerous locations across the northern US, Canada, and
          > Europe. See this link for some great aurora pictures :
          > http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_07sep02.html .
          > The geomagnetic storm has subsided, but there could be more action
          on
          > the way. A coronal hole is in an Earth-pointing position, and we
          > could see some high-speed solar wind gusts from it as early as
          > Tuesday. Moderate solar activity is expected to continue, with
          > sunspot region 105 being the most likely source of flares.
          >
          > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
          >
          > NOAA sunspot number : 221
          > SFI : 192
          > A index : 23
          > K index : 2
          >
          > Solar wind speed : 496.6 km/sec
          > Solar wind density : 2.3 protons/cc
          > Solar wind pressure : n/a
          >
          > IMF : 9.5 nT
          > IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT North
          >
          > Conditions for the last 24 hours : Space weather for the past 24
          hours
          > has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
          >
          > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
          > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
          > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
          >
          > Solar activity forecast :
          > Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 105 is the most
          > likely source of energetic flares.
          >
          > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
          > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Activity
          > levels may increase by the end of the three-day forecast period in
          > response to an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
          >
          > Recent significant solar flare activity :
          > 08-Sep-2002 0143Z M1.5



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        • mike
          What is Lindzen smoking? How come the pack a day habit? ... his wristwatch, leaned back and smiled. It is a mistake, he said, to suppose that the public
          Message 4 of 4 , Sep 9, 2002
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            What is Lindzen smoking? How come the pack a day habit?

            From Asimov's "The Gods Themselves":

            ---"Let me give you a lesson practical politics." Senator Burth looked at
            his wristwatch, leaned back and smiled. "It is a mistake," he said, "to
            suppose that the public wants he environment protected or their lives
            saved and that they will be grateful to any idealist who will fight for
            such ends. What the public wants is their own individual comfort.
            "Now then, young man, don't ask me ot stop the Pumping. The economy and
            comfort of the entire planet depend on it. Tell me, instead, how to to
            keep the Pumping from exploding the sun."
            Lamont said, "There is no way, Senator. We are dealing with something
            here that is so basic, we can't play with it. We must stop it."
            "We must."
            "In that case, you will need hard and fast proof that you are right."
            "The best proof," Lamont said stiffly, "is to have the Sun explode."---

            You know, I listen to Nirvana's Kurt Corbain's music knowing frankly he
            was a heroin addict with suicidal leanings. And if you caught the context
            of my previous comments about Lindzen's smoking addiction, it was from
            the standpoint of biology, that now quatum mechanics are starting to be
            introduced to biological sciences--in that some like Joejohn McFadden are
            postulating, with systems help (meaning many scientists together on the
            same project), that instead of genetic processes being entirely random
            with selection thereafter are part of a deeper level of functioning by
            DNA/RNA--on a quantum level of selection with the replicating material
            sensing quantum states--and how that may have an oxydized chemistry
            context.

            Anyway, from there, Gaia would mean that sensing oxydized chemistry could
            select toward mutation! Put another way, cancer IS a Gaia response on a
            lower order of an evolutionary past. BUT, humans have adapted to fit in
            conditions of fire--of oxydized states. AND, they did so over a
            significant period of time that their lung tissues have evolved duplicity-
            -one must have four, five, six mutations of oncogenes to get lung cancer.
            BUT, by product of humans living longer AND smoking, we have cancer
            expressed . . .

            What I ponder over our University's dogma is more the history of human
            nature. Same sort of questions, though--just that I am projecting on
            Lindzen.

            Yet, my comments about Lindzen smoking is project well because even
            though he calls his paper 'iris' he seems to lack biological
            sensibilities, which is apparent in his choice of smoking. For anyone
            with any biology/health science training, smoking is akin to being
            mentally retarded . . .

            As far as EMFs and Lindzen are concerned, EMFs is some heavy $hit. I
            don't think anyone should be blasted for missing EMFs and cirrus cloud
            behavior--even if clouds are your business.

            Fractal math.

            Like Lindzen's 2 degree by 2 degree squares, there is now data available
            by tools like sattelites that essentially are fractal fields. Something
            that size of measure is enough, for instance, to pick up direction of
            trade currents and EMF induction, impedance values in the tropical W.
            Pac.--to explain what the 'iris' really is and what it means to Doran
            waves--even though the subatomic actions are not observed . . .

            What should be noticed about Fay is that it, electrically, can be traced
            all the way back to when the SOI went positive, even for a day, and the
            wave off Africa that was to become Dolly. Interestingly, with Fay we got
            deltas and RAIN for the first time in six months. It rained in S. Cal
            too, which is amazing considering how dry it was there. The Doran wave
            implications of such a strong concentration of EMF from Fay gave us rain.

            Meanwhile, despite the fact that often Fay was "open", it persisted due,
            IMHO, to the N-S nature of the El Nino 1,2, SW Panama shoreline, W.
            Carribean to GOM wave of warm to cold anomalies that would support EMF
            Doran wave activity, where there was a very strong and dry strip of
            protons to ground just south of Fay . . .

            Which brings me back to NO El Nino (no Christain reference intended).
            These kind of Doran wave conditions dampen climate and cause there to be
            no chaotic extremes that would be expected with chaotic inputs and
            chaotic functions, fractal or not, such as what seems to occur w/ an El
            Nino. Explosions and chaos--can't exist together with a living
            earth . . . it is not chaos was, chaos is, as those using weather models
            that are worthless after 3 days would preach, but it is biological
            modulation was, and is, so take care of that living organism we live on.

            Here is a great link I am using for strike data:

            http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag87.html

            That link shows the continued similar pattern of the monsoons, the
            remnants of the Texas E. GOM storm, and the G storm--all lined up with
            the most intense EMF activity all at about the same lattitude and dry
            strips--read fair weather positive voltage to ground--in between.
            A tropical storm is a capacitive in nature. Capaciters have parts of them
            that are NOT conductive and parts that are. This allows alternating
            currents to flow through them and energies are exchanged, which in turn
            changes cloud behavior of cirrus and so forth. If a tropical storm
            landfalls, there are no longer current paths for these alternating
            currents and they then go to the least resistive path--away from the
            storms--to other places in the world. The parts that are of interest, of
            course, are the oceans and the ionosphere. If a storm runs out of ocean,
            the charges that have accumulated as a part of a former dynamic are now
            in the ionosphere free to move . . . The strike data allows us to see
            shorts across these capacitors--and see the limitations of them. It is
            likewise a fractal pattern . . .

            Part of the problem is that I am writing for people who may have read my
            stuff before and are following. These are large assumptions, I know. Then
            there are the thoughts I have that I haven't conveyed that are required
            before making the point made, or worse there are the thoughts conveyed
            when you sort of know the answer but can't describe how you got there.

            What I have said about the Lindzen 'iris' paper and other papers, of
            course, is that there is a connection between cloud behavior, between
            electrical activity and cirrus clouds, and what that then means to
            infrared absorbtion by clouds and what sea surface temperatures, or SSTs,
            then do. It is my devoloping view that waves of areas that are EMF
            favorable then not result in SSTs expressing this occurrance.

            Part of the problem is the fractal math requirement to describe what we
            are talking about and how the size of the measured areas matter. Either
            for simplicity or complexities sake. In this case, what pattern I am
            describing, in the best mathematical way possible based on the real time
            data, is the strike and cloud data in references to SSTs--because there
            is a sort of dependant relationship here. Cold SSTs are NOT
            conductive!!!! Let me say again. COLD SSTS ARE NOT CONDUCTIVE. WARM ARE!
            So EMF activity, specially the wave activity I have been discussing, is
            going to be particularly implicated by warm ocean surfaces. Even over
            larger areas this description brings meaningful discussion of EMFs,
            clouds, and climate/weather patterns like ENSO.

            ++++++

            The planetary link you provided was very interesting for me because I was
            thinking about the lack of dust on planets and the EMF reasons why that
            could be true. As you know, during glacial epochs there is more dust--
            which to me indicates less effective Gaia feedbacks, that Gaia therefore
            is among those rare kinds of feedbacks that are positive.


            -----Original Message-----
            From: "kirk" <kirk@...>
            To: <methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com>
            Date: Mon, 9 Sep 2002 10:58:52 -0600
            Subject: RE: [Methane Hydrate Club] Re: Solar Activity Report for 9/8/02

            > Always look forward to your prognosticating and analysis.
            > The "science" as taught in our universities is sadly lacking.
            > Would be humorous if it wasn't so serious.
            >
            > A weather anecdote, besides the Utah and Wisconsin tornados, summer
            > before
            > last I saw a lightning display on the mountains around my house,
            > probably 20
            > miles for the furthest, where the light didn't go out for about a
            > minute.
            > That is a lot of electricity. Like the flickering light from a welder,
            > sometimes brighter but never a break.
            >
            > Truly amazing.
            > Lightning this year was normal.
            >
            > Kirk
            >
            >
            > -----Original Message-----
            > From: pawnfart [mailto:mike@...]
            > Sent: Monday, September 09, 2002 2:01 AM
            > To: methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com
            > Subject: [Methane Hydrate Club] Re: Solar Activity Report for 9/8/02
            >
            >
            > Thanks for the report. I see the G. Storm formed and that the SOI is
            > neg w/ the flaring/CME. I always look for that proton number . . .
            > as it gets into the 400s . . .
            >
            >
            > Kirk,
            >
            > Thanks for the that.
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "b1blancer_29501" <b1blancer1@e...>
            > wrote:
            > > A CME kicked off by a C-class flare impacted Earth's megnetosphere
            > on
            > > Saturday, and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung sharply
            > > southward. The result was a geomagnetic storm that peaked at the G-
            > 3
            > > (strong) level. Aurora were spotted as far south as North Carolina,
            > > as well as numerous locations across the northern US, Canada, and
            > > Europe. See this link for some great aurora pictures :
            > > http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_07sep02.html .
            > > The geomagnetic storm has subsided, but there could be more action
            > on
            > > the way. A coronal hole is in an Earth-pointing position, and we
            > > could see some high-speed solar wind gusts from it as early as
            > > Tuesday. Moderate solar activity is expected to continue, with
            > > sunspot region 105 being the most likely source of flares.
            > >
            > > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
            > >
            > > NOAA sunspot number : 221
            > > SFI : 192
            > > A index : 23
            > > K index : 2
            > >
            > > Solar wind speed : 496.6 km/sec
            > > Solar wind density : 2.3 protons/cc
            > > Solar wind pressure : n/a
            > >
            > > IMF : 9.5 nT
            > > IMF Orientation : 4.6 nT North
            > >
            > > Conditions for the last 24 hours : Space weather for the past 24
            > hours
            > > has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
            > >
            > > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
            > > Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
            > > blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
            > >
            > > Solar activity forecast :
            > > Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 105 is the most
            > > likely source of energetic flares.
            > >
            > > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
            > > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Activity
            > > levels may increase by the end of the three-day forecast period in
            > > response to an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
            > >
            > > Recent significant solar flare activity :
            > > 08-Sep-2002 0143Z M1.5
            >
            >
            >
            > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
            > methanehydrateclub-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
            >
            >
            >
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            > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
            >
            >
            >
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