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Solar Activity Report for 9/6/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    A south-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field combined with solar wind gusts conspired to ignite a G-2 class geomagnetic storm Tuesday night, which was
    Message 1 of 3 , Sep 6, 2002
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      A south-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field combined with solar
      wind gusts conspired to ignite a G-2 class geomagnetic storm Tuesday
      night, which was accompanied by numerous aurora displays. Aurora were
      seen and photographed at several locations over the northern US and
      Canada. See this link for some great aurora pictures :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_04sep02.html .
      There are several sunspot regions visible tonight. Regions 95 and 96
      look like they could produce an M-class flare. Another coronal hole
      has rotated into view over the eastern limb of the solar disk. We
      could see some solar wind gusts from it on or about the 10th.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 189
      SFI : 178
      A index : 8
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 386.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.4 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa

      IMF : 5.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 5.7 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 95 and 96
      could each produce low-level M-class activity. Old active Region 69
      (S08, L=299) is expected to return at the east limb within the
      three-day forecast period.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
      next 24 hours or so. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on
      8-9 September in response to yesterday's long-duration C5 flare and
      eruptive filament. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could cross the
      10 pfu event threshold within the next few hours but a large peak
      event flux is not expected.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • David
      There isn t much to report tonight. If it weren t for a coronal hole, things would be positively boring. No major flares have been recorded over the last few
      Message 2 of 3 , Sep 26, 2002
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        There isn't much to report tonight. If it weren't for a coronal hole,
        things would be positively boring. No major flares have been recorded
        over the last few days, and no sunspot regions currently visible look
        like they have much of a flare generating potential. There is a small
        chance of an M-class flare from sunspot region 132 or 134. Getting
        back to the aforementioned coronal hole, there is a small one rotating
        into an Earth-pointing position. We could see some solar wind gusts
        from it around the 30th.

        The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

        NOAA sunspot number : 157
        SFI : 150
        A index : 6
        K index : 2

        Solar wind speed : 308.9 km/sec
        Solar wind density : 1.1 protons/cc
        Solar wind pressure : 0.3 nPa

        IMF : 7.8 nT
        IMF Orientation : 4.4 nT North

        Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

        Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

        Solar activity forecast :
        Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three
        days. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from
        Region 132 or Region 134.

        Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next
        three days. There is a possibility for an increase to unsettled to
        active late on the third day as a positive polarity coronal hole will
        be rotating into a geoeffective position at that time.

        Recent significant solar flare activity :
        None
      • Mike Doran
        Between the warm anomalies off the coast of Panama getting cooled by Doran waves and cyclonic activity this late fall and your reporting slowing flaring and
        Message 3 of 3 , Sep 27, 2002
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          Between the warm anomalies off the coast of Panama getting cooled by
          Doran waves and cyclonic activity this late fall and your reporting
          slowing flaring and CME, a La Nina or neutral winter is a sure thing.


          The SOI has maintained itself near zero and is barely positive again
          today.

          --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "David" <b1blancer1@e...> wrote:
          > There isn't much to report tonight. If it weren't for a coronal
          hole,
          > things would be positively boring. No major flares have been
          recorded
          > over the last few days, and no sunspot regions currently visible
          look
          > like they have much of a flare generating potential. There is a
          small
          > chance of an M-class flare from sunspot region 132 or 134. Getting
          > back to the aforementioned coronal hole, there is a small one
          rotating
          > into an Earth-pointing position. We could see some solar wind gusts
          > from it around the 30th.
          >
          > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
          >
          > NOAA sunspot number : 157
          > SFI : 150
          > A index : 6
          > K index : 2
          >
          > Solar wind speed : 308.9 km/sec
          > Solar wind density : 1.1 protons/cc
          > Solar wind pressure : 0.3 nPa
          >
          > IMF : 7.8 nT
          > IMF Orientation : 4.4 nT North
          >
          > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
          > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
          >
          > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
          > No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
          >
          > Solar activity forecast :
          > Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next
          three
          > days. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from
          > Region 132 or Region 134.
          >
          > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
          > The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next
          > three days. There is a possibility for an increase to unsettled to
          > active late on the third day as a positive polarity coronal hole
          will
          > be rotating into a geoeffective position at that time.
          >
          > Recent significant solar flare activity :
          > None
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