Solar Activity Report for 9/3/02
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The Earth is catching some solar wind gusts this evening due to
coronal hole effects. As I write this, the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field has taken a sharp southerly orientation, and I wouldn't discount
the possibility that there is some geomagnetic storm activity going
on. Skywatchers should keep an eye out for aurora over the next 24
hours. There are ten sunspot groups visible, and the sunspot number
is higher than it has been for awhile. However, so far only one of
them, sunspot region 95, looks like it has any flare-generating
potential. An X-class flare from that region is a possibility.
Whenever you see a large disparity between the sunspot number and the
SFI where the sunspot number is significantly higher, that means you
have a lot of sunspots, but most of them aren't really active
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 266
SFI : 171
A index : 7
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 43.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa
IMF : 15.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 14 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 95 has the
potential for M-class activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period due
to the weak CME passage and a recurring coronal hole. Greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit is expected to be moderate
to high on day three of the forecast period.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
03-Sep-2002 0054Z M1.0