** S-2 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
This past week has been a good one for aurora. A pair of CME's stuck
during the week triggering geomagnetic storms. See this link for some
great aurora pictures that were taken in Europe, Canada, and the
northern US. The cause for all the activity was sunspot region 69.
This very active sunspot has now rotated over the western limb of the
solar disk, but not before getting off a very powerful parting shot in
the form of a major X-3 flare. Due to the sunspot's proximity to the
western limb, the accompanying CME was not Earth-directed, although
the flare did set off an S-2 solar radiation storm, which is ongoing.
The proton barrage has skewed the solar wind density data from the
ACE satellite, so the figure given below is from the SOHO satellite.
There have been numerous flares in the last 48 hours. One of them,
and M-5 event that happened on Thursday, hurled a CME into space. It
wasn't really Earth-directed, but we could see a glancing blow from it
sometime tomorrow. Sunspot regions 83, 85, and 87 all appear capable
of producing an occasional M-class flare.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 207
SFI : 210
A index : 10
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 395.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 10.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : n/a
IMF : 6.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.8 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate. Solar
radiation storms reaching the S2 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R2 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 69, 83, 85,
and 87 all have potential to produce a major flare.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 24-25
August as a possible result of the M5 event observed at 22/0157 UTC.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 26 August.
Recent solar flare activity :
24-Aug-2002 0112Z X3.1
23-Aug-2002 2021Z M1.4
23-Aug-2002 1314Z M1.5
23-Aug-2002 1200Z M1.2
23-Aug-2002 0946Z M1.5
23-Aug-2002 0549Z M1.7
22-Aug-2002 1802Z M1.2
22-Aug-2002 0157Z M5.4
21-Aug-2002 0534Z X1.0
21-Aug-2002 0141Z M1.4