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Solar Activity Report for 8/17/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** ** Geomagnetic Storm Watch In Effect ** Sunspot region 69 continues to be highy active, and things could be getting much more
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 17, 2002
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
      ** Geomagnetic Storm Watch In Effect **

      Sunspot region 69 continues to be highy active, and things could be
      getting much more active here on Earth very soon. Sunspot region 69
      produced a long-duration M-5 flare on Friday, which launched a
      full-halo, albeit slightly lopsided, CME towards Earth. We are just
      about directly in the path of this one, folks. Arrival of the CME is
      expected sometime Sunday, and there's the possibility of some very
      strong geomagnetic storm conditions. There's talk of forecasted A
      indices in the 70 range. You can never really tell exactly how
      megnetosphere will behave until the CME gets here, but there is a very
      good possibility of some dazzling aurora displays Sunday evening,
      depending upon exactly when the CME arrives and how intense the
      accompanying geomagnetic storm is. Meanwhile, there is a good
      likelyhood for more flares from region 69, some of which may be major
      flares.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 270
      SFI : 227
      A index : 11
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 407.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.6 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa

      IMF : 4.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.1 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours : Space weather for the past 24 hours
      has been minor. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 69 has the
      potential to produce a major event.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor to major storm levels
      on day one of the forecast period. A shock arrival from the M5/full
      halo CME event on 16 August is expected early on day one. The
      geomagnetic field for day two and three of the forecast period is
      expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      17-Aug-2002 2051Z M3.4
      17-Aug-2002 0108Z M1.1
      16-Aug-2002 1232Z M5.2
      16-Aug-2002 0611Z M2.4
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