Solar Activity Report for 8/13/02
- Coronal hole effects are continuing this evening, although they are
not very pronounced. The solar wind speed is, however, mildly
elevated, and it should continue to be for the next couple of days.
Sunspot region 69, a new, large sunspot region that has just rotated
into view over the eastern limb of the solar disk, has already caused
some flare activity. Two M-class flares have been produced by this
sunspot region over the last 24 hours. More flares are definitely a
possibility in the days ahead, and a major flare is not out of the
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 214
SFI : 192
A index : 13
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 438.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
IMF : 4.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.1 nT
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 69
is likely to produce isolated M-class flares during the period. There
is also a slight chance for a major flare from this region.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geo-synchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of
the forecast period.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
14-Aug-2002 0212Z M2.3
13-Aug-2002 1904Z M1.8