Solar Activity Report for 8/10/02
- Coronal hole effects continue unabated tonight. Within the last 24
hours, there was a period of G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions,
although that has since subsided. There is another coronal hole that
is now in an Earth-pointing position, which will continue the
high-speed solar wind gusts that we have been experiencing for the
last several days. Some aurora displays are possible in the higher
latitudes. There was a CME generated today that was caused by a
dissapearing filament located on the sun's central meridian, although
in a somewhat northerly location. It appears that most of the CME was
not Earth-directed, although it is possible we will receive a glancing
blow from it in a couple of days. There hasn't been any flare
activity to speak of. Sunspot region 61 has decayed somewhat, but
still has M-class flare generating potential.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 140
SFI : 148
A index : 14
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 417.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 13.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 3.7 nPa
IMF : 9.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.8 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. Region 61 (N08W15)
is still a moderately large region which could produce isolated
M-class activity during the period.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for
the first day of the forecast period. Isolated active periods are
possible on day two and three, due to expected coronal hole effects,
or possibly some flanking shock passage effects from the CME activity
described in section 1A above.
Recent significant solar flare activity :