Solar Activity Report for 8/3/03
- ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Skywatchers the northern US and Canada were treated to a vivid aurora
display late Thurday night and early Friday morning as a G-2 class
geomagnetic storm struck. Some quite beautiful aurora pictures were
captured in several locations. They can be seen here:
Right now the K index is at 5, and G-1 class geomagnetic storm is in
progress. More aurora are possible tonight. The sunspot region
39/44/50 complex is now rotating out of view over the western limb of
the solar disk, but it isn't leaving quietly. There was a big
X1.0-class flare today, although the associated CME did not appear to
be Earth-directed. We are currently under the influence of a
high-speed coronal hole generated solar wind stream, which is probably
contributing to the geomagnetic activity. Another coronal hole has
just rotated into an Earth-pointing position, and more high-speed
solar wind gusts should arrive on the 6th.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 218
SFI : 168
A index : 18
K index : 5
Solar wind speed : 450.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class flares are still
possible from Regions 39 and 44 as they rotate around the west limb.
M-class flares are also possible from Region 50 and developing Region
57. An isolated major flare is possible.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to
unsettled levels with isolated high latitude active periods.
Preliminary analysis of the X1 flare and CME off the SW limb late
today suggests the ejecta is not earthbound.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
03-Aug-2002 1907Z X1.0
02-Aug-2002 1053Z M1.0