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Solar Activity Report for 8/1/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    ** G-2 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** A shock passage was observed by the ACE satellite earlier today. That sudden impulse
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 1, 2002
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      ** G-2 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      A shock passage was observed by the ACE satellite earlier today. That
      sudden impulse caused a strong jump in the Interplanetary Magnetic
      Field (IMF), and triggered a G-2 geomagnetic storm, which is currently
      in progress. Aurora are a definite possibility this evening, and
      skywatchers should be on the lookout for aurora late Thursday and
      during the pre-dawn hours Friday. Flare activity continued today with
      the production of another M-class flare. Major flares are still
      possible from the sunspot region 39/44/50 complex as it approaches the
      western limb of the solar disk. A coronal hole is close to an
      Earth-pointing position, although the bulk of the coronal hole is in
      the sun's northern hemisphere. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that
      we will see some high speed solar wind gusts from it on the 2nd or 3rd
      of August.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 259
      SFI : 193
      A index : 23
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 529.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.5 nPa

      IMF : 11.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 11.0 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 39,
      Region 44, and Region 50 have the potential for M-class events. Region
      39 and Region 50 have a chance of producing a major flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A negative
      polarity coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
      position on day two of the forecast period. There is a chance of
      active conditions due to the effects of the coronal hole.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      31-Jul-2002 0153Z M1.2
      29-Jul-2002 1044Z M4.7
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