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Solar Activity Report for 7/30/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    The long awaited CME from the M-8 flare of 7/26 arrived Monday, and triggered some brief geomagnetic storm conditions. Since the passage of that CME, the
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 30, 2002
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      The long awaited CME from the M-8 flare of 7/26 arrived Monday, and
      triggered some brief geomagnetic storm conditions. Since the passage
      of that CME, the solar wind speeds and densities have calmed down a
      bit. Solar activity remains high, however. The most recent
      significant flare was a M-1 event which occurred Tuesday evening. We
      could see another major flare at any time from either sunspot region
      39, 44, or 50. All three of these sunspot groups are located close to
      each other, and are all quite large. There is a coronal hole that is
      rotating into an Earth-pointing position. Although most of this
      coronal hole is located in the sun's northern hemispere, parts of it
      do extend south to the solar equator. We could see some solar wind
      gusts from it by the end of the week.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 297
      SFI : 227
      A index : 9
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 377.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.1 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.2 nPa

      IMF : 5.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.0 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Isolated M-class flares are
      expected from Regions 39 and 44. Either region could produce a major
      flare during the period. Region 50 could also produce an isolated
      M-class flare during the period.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 31
      July. Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active
      levels during 01 - 02 August. There is a slight chance for a proton
      event during the period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      31-Jul-2002 0150Z M1.4
      29-Jul-2002 1044Z M4.7
      29-Jul-2002 0238Z M4.8
      29-Jul-2002 0023Z M1.4
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